Max Fried and Lucas Giolito are two high school pitchers out of Harvard-Westlake School in Studio City, California. Both of them figure to be drafted high in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft.
Fried has three good pitches in his arsenal with the fastball, curveball and changeup. While the fastball isn't at top velocity, it's still a very good pitch, and his curveball might be the best in the entire draft. Giolito probably possess better stuff than Fried, but it's quite possible he ends up going later on because of an arm injury he suffered recently.
Two mock drafts have them both going very early to their teams. Giolito might be one of the best pitchers in the draft, but the injury knocks him a good peg below Fried. Baseball Prospectus has Fried going 5th to the Kansas City Royals and Giolito going 12th overall to the New York Mets.
Logic says the Royals will select from whichever of the big three college arms are left, but teams are having problems getting away from the fact that when GM Dayton Moore saw Zimmer, he saw him bad, and that could be a tough sell. Like Seattle, the Royals are an early wild card who could go with Fried, Zunino or even a tier two college arm to save their spending cap for later picks.
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Forty-eight hours ago, I would have done a mock without Giolito, but he suddenly has a number of rumored landing spots, beginning with New York, who seem to be definitely at least kicking the tires on the draft's biggest wild card. He's a tough sign here, an even tougher one later, but the Mets are rumored to be making another splash. If they get cold feet today, they could go in a number of directions, all of them high school-based, and in particular Corey Seager, Cecchini and another possible difficult sign in Lance McCullers.
Miami would gladly take Fried or Almora if they fell. If not, the Marlins will choose between Heaney and Hawkins. They might be the first team to strongly consider Lucas Giolito.
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After resisting the urge to simply guess and put Giolito somewhere in our first three projections, we'll put him here. Toronto has five of the first 60 selections, so if the Giolito negotiations don't work out, it can just collect the No. 18 pick in 2013 as compensation and still get plenty of talent this year. The Blue Jays' financial muscle in this draft also could lead them to McCullers or Seager. They're hot for high-ceiling athletes such as Mississippi high school outfielder D.J. Davis, who might not make it to their next choice at No. 22.
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