SB Nation Los Angeles: All Posts by Dexter Fishmorehttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48949/la-fave.png2012-09-25T06:03:59-07:00https://losangeles.sbnation.com/authors/dexter-fishmore/rss2012-09-25T06:03:59-07:002012-09-25T06:03:59-07:00Lakers the team to watch in L.A.
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<p>The Los Angeles Lakers were busy in the offseason, with the additions of Dwight Howard and Steve Nash. The expectations are enormous.</p> <p>Earlier this summer, it was plausible to think of the L.A. sports scene as standing on the threshold of something historic. Recall how the landscape looked only a couple months ago. The <span class="sbn-auto-link">Kings</span> had just finished an out-of-nowhere run to the Stanley Cup, and with all key players returning next season they had the look of a proto-dynasty. Rejuvenated by the defenestration of Frank and Jamie McCourt, the Dodgers were holding their own in the NL West race and starting to splash some money around. They and the Angels both looked like potential World Series teams. USC football and UCLA basketball were loading up for "return to glory"-type campaigns. In July the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/">Lakers</a> shook the NBA by acquiring <span>Steve Nash</span>, and then a month later did so again by trading for <span>Dwight Howard</span>. Quietly, all the while, the steps necessary to return the NFL to Los Angeles were moving forward at the behest of the City Council and stadium developer Anschutz Entertainment Group. A new golden age in L.A. sports seemed imminent.</p>
<p>That was the summer. Astronomically speaking it’s now fall, and as the days grow shorter the giddiness of L.A. sports fans is fading a touch. Annoying realities have curtailed our dreams of hoarding trophies and banners across multiple sports. Consider...</p>
<p>NHL labor nonsense is jeopardizing the start of the new hockey season, which would deprive us of getting to watch one of the most likeable teams in L.A. history, one with a real shot at back-to-back Stanley Cups.</p>
<p>Injuries and hitting slumps have all but buried the Dodgers, while the Angels just haven’t been able to get over the hump in their chase for the American League’s final playoff spot. Barring miracles, the Dodgers will soon reach 24 years without a World Series title (or appearance) and the Angels will miss the playoffs for the third straight season.</p>
<p>USC football got undressed by Stanford and looks more like a Holiday Bowl squad than a BCS-bound powerhouse.</p>
<p>The hoped-for revival of the UCLA hoops program is threatened by a recently revealed NCAA investigation into the eligibility of star freshman recruits Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson.</p>
<p>Finally, just last week we learned that AEG is being put up for sale, throwing the Farmers Field project into significant, if hopefully temporary, doubt.</p>
<p>The summer wasn’t all bad. UCLA football, for the most part, has played better than many expected. Angels fans have enjoyed riding the bandwagon of Mike Trout, easily one of the most electric young stars we’ve seen around here in a while. The Galaxy are recovering their form and positioning themselves for another charge at the MLS Cup. As for the Dodgers, getting rid of McCourt was the important thing they could’ve accomplished, and it’s not like people thought this was the year to win another World Series banner. They’re set up well for next season with some weapons-grade stars in the lineup and, most important of all, Vin Scully committed to at least one more season on the airwaves. Also, James Loney got traded. Life could definitely be worse, but our ambitions to pan-sport dominance have been put in check for the time being.</p>
<p>That’s okay, though, because the Lakers are about to reenter our lives, and when they do, nothing else will matter. A week from today they open training camp. From that moment until their season ends, the city will be transfixed by a team unlike any we’ve ever come across. The idea of Steve Nash, <span>Kobe Bryant</span>, <span>Pau Gasol</span> and Dwight Howard on the floor together still seems not entirely real. Nor does the idea of a Lakers team that has a decent bench (hello there, <span>Jodie Meeks</span>, <span>Antawn Jamison</span> and <span>Jordan Hill</span>) and that can actually shoot three-pointers (hello again, Jodie Meeks, and you too, Steve Nash). The expectations for this group couldn’t be higher. Do we expect them to win a title? Well yes, that goes without saying. Beyond that, however, we expect this Lakers team to be a must-watch phenomenon, night in and night out. Against inferior opponents we expect crushing victories. Against elite teams we expect only slightly less crushing victories.<br><br>Obviously the banner is the thing, but there’s potential here for the Lakers to be one of the greatest NBA teams of all time. What Laker fans thirst for is an era-defining colossus, a team so awesomely powerful that when historians look back on 2010 and 2011, those seasons seem will like a weird interregnum, a brief interruption of the natural state of Laker dominance. <span>Metta World Peace</span> wants the Lake Show <a target="_blank" href="http://losangeles.sbnation.com/2012/9/17/3349584/metta-world-peace-los-angeles-lakers-73-wins-ron-artest">to push for 73 wins</a>. Metta says a lot of things, most of which shouldn’t be taken seriously, but the interesting thing about his 73-wins comment is that it can’t be just immediately dismissed. The Lakers probably won’t come all that close to 73 wins, but sitting here today, can you say with much confidence that 73 is off the table? At the very least you have to stop and think about it, right?<br><br>That’s what the next eight months will be about. We’ll spend them watching the Lakers and wondering what heights they can reach. There will be crises along the way, because these are still the Lakers we’re talking about, but that’s part of the fun of rooting for a superteam. The first time Kobe misses five shots in the last few minutes of a close game, or Dwight honks some crucial late free throws, or Pau looks out of place in the new offense, people will wonder if this grand experiment is breaking down. The Los Angeles Times will run a few pieces comparing this Lakers team to the 2004 Payton-Malone version that came unglued and lasted only one season. <span>Mike Brown</span> will come under fire periodically. And just in case there isn’t enough drama to keep us entertained, we get to spend a season wondering whether Dwight will re-sign with the Lakers at the end of it. (Not that we should expect any pity from Orlando fans.)<br><br>It’s usually exaggeration to say a team’s season will be a failure if they don’t win a championship, but not in this instance. Everyone involved with the Lakers, from the top down, views banner number 17 as an imperative. For the Buss family, it would validate the stewardship of Jim Buss and allow him to step out of his father’s shadow. For Mitch Kupchak, it would reward the incredible work he’s done to assemble this roster in spite of the team’s salary-cap situation. For Mike Brown, it would go a long way toward putting to rest concerns about his ability to coach at an elite level. For Kobe, it would answer questions about his willingness to adjust his game to accommodate other superstars. For Laker fans, it would be revenge against craven owners who’ve tried to drag the Lake Show down to their level, first with a collective bargaining agreement designed to punish successful big-market teams and then again in the still-embittering "basketball reasons" affair. Other than that, there’s not much at stake.</p>
<p>And win or lose, the spectacle is not to be missed.</p>
<p><i>Follow Dex on Twitter <a target="_blank" href="http://www.twitter.com/dexterfishmore">@dexterfishmore</a>. For more news and notes on Lakers basketball, be sure to read <a target="_blank" href="http://www.silverscreenandroll.com">Silver Screen and Roll</a>.</i></p>
https://losangeles.sbnation.com/los-angeles-lakers/2012/9/25/3404028/los-angeles-lakers-offseason-review-dwight-howard-steve-nash-kobe-bryant-expectationsDexter Fishmore2012-09-14T04:30:12-07:002012-09-14T04:30:12-07:00That's Mora Like It: UCLA Facing Heightened Expectations After Fast Start
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<p>The new regime in Westwood has the Bruins off to a roaring start. Now the challenge is to handle success.</p> <p>Just two games into the Jim Mora, Jr. era at UCLA, and an unfamiliar, almost alien mood of excitement surrounds the Bruin football program. Fans who've spent the past 13 seasons watching UCLA play timid, ineffectual football under timid, ineffectual coaches are revising their expectations upward - cautiously, because we've all been here before and had our hopes disappointed, but upward nonetheless. The opening day victory over Rice was a good start that validated an early sense that Mora was moving things in the right direction. Last Saturday's exhilarating takedown of ranked Nebraska showed that Mora's plan is ahead of schedule and that his Bruins are ready to compete right away.</p>
<p>But compete for what, exactly? Well, a late-December bowl berth, at the minimum. At the moment UCLA appears to be no worse than the fourth best team in the Pac-12, which would put them on track for the Holiday or Alamo Bowl. For a program whose high-water mark in the current millennium was a 2005 visit to the Sun Bowl, a postseason trip to San Diego or San Antonio would mark a definitive step forward. But why stop there? The Bruins might be favored in all of their next eight games, and although three opponents in that stretch (Oregon State, Arizona State and Arizona) notched big victories last weekend and look to be more formidable than expected, it's not totally crazy to imagine UCLA carrying a 10-0 record into its November 17 confrontation with USC. From there, you're just an upset away from a spot in the Pac-12 title game and a puncher's chance at the BCS.</p>
<p>I'm not saying that scenario is <i>likely</i>. Odds are, the Bruins will stub their toe at least once between now and then. But the schedule is set up for a huge run over the next couple months. Of the four road games, only one is against a team getting poll votes (Arizona State) and three (Colorado, Cal and Wazzu) are against teams who've looked awful in the season's first two weeks. This is how fast expectations have shifted for UCLA. Before the season started, eight wins was considered a reasonable best-case scenario. Now anything below eight will be viewed as a disappointment.</p>
<p>Much of the credit for the Bruins' fast start has gone to redshirt freshman quarterback <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38230/brett-hundley">Brett Hundley</a> and senior running back <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38186/johnathan-franklin">Johnathan Franklin</a>. They deserve all the daps coming their way. Hundley, who ranks top 20 nationally in passer rating, plays with such calm and intelligence it's hard to believe he's experienced only two more games in college than you and I have. His passing touch still needs some work, but Noel Mazzone's offense, designed to stress a defense both vertically and horizontally, allows Hundley to get into an easy passing rhythm with quick, crisp tosses to tight ends and running backs. Already the youngster looks like best Bruins QB since Cade McNown. Assuming he stays healthy (forever a concern when it comes to UCLA and its quarterbacks), he's the kind of foundational talent a coach can build a program around.</p>
<p>Franklin, though, looks destined be the Bruins' signature player this year. He's been building toward this. The last couple seasons he's had to grind out yards behind poor offensive lines and without the benefit of a decent passing game to keep opponents from loading up the box. Now that he's got a little help, his takeover is underway. He's running with speed, leverage and power and becoming a weapon in the passing game as well. Don't dismiss his Heisman chances. Increasingly, Heisman voters are showing a preference for guys who post breakout campaigns after beginning the season off the radar. Such was the path taken by the last three Heisman winners: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/35170/mark-ingram">Mark Ingram</a> in 2009, Cam Newton in 2010 and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/35519/robert-griffin-iii">Robert Griffin III</a> in 2011. (One problem, though, is that even if Franklin continues to dominate, West Coast Heisman voters are likely to split their votes among Franklin, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136017/de-anthony-thomas">De'Anthony Thomas</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78123/matt-barkley">Matt Barkley</a>. Still, even an invite to New York for the presentation would be an honor and a source of nice publicity for the UCLA program.)</p>
<p>What's most encouraging is how the team is getting production out of nearly every positional unit, not just the offensive skill guys. Start with the offensive line, which I predicted would struggle to begin the season based on the amount of preseason practice time guys missed (because of injuries and the San Bernardino heat) and the fact the starting five includes three freshmen and a guy who hadn't played a game in two years while off on a Mormon mission. My pessimism, I'm happy to report, was misplaced. The O-line has been great, both in opening holes for the running game and keeping pressure out of Hundley's face. The defensive line has also been a nice surprise. We knew there was talent up front, but it's been ages since the Bruins D-line was something other than horrible, and I don't think anyone expected them to blossom in the new 3-4 scheme as quickly as they have. Underclassmen <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/162647/ellis-mccarthy">Ellis McCarthy</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/113888/owamagbe-odighizuwa">Owamagbe Odighizuwa</a> are stars in the making. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38229/datone-jones">Datone Jones</a>, whose sack of Taylor Martinez in Nebraska's endzone knocked the life out of the Huskers, is finally playing up to his potential.</p>
<p>The list of unsung contributors goes deep. Shaq Evens and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136303/devin-lucien">Devin Lucien</a> are providing an outside-the-numbers receiving threat that UCLA hasn't had in years. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136311/steven-manfro">Steven Manfro</a> shook off a case of the drops against Rice to gash Nebraska with a long touchdown catch. On defense, Anthony Barr switched from running back to shore up the linebacker corps and already looks like a natural playmaker. OLB <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/113877/jordan-zumwalt">Jordan Zumwalt</a> is bringing the lumber as well. The secondary is getting good play from true frosh <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/162614/randall-goforth">Randall Goforth</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/162625/ishmael-adams">Ishmael Adams</a> alongside veterans <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38194/andrew-abbott">Andrew Abbott</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38187/aaron-hester">Aaron Hester</a>. And we'd be remiss not to call out <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38214/jeff-locke">Jeff Locke</a>, who's been an invaluable field-position weapon on both punts and kickoffs.</p>
<p>Best of all, this team just <i>looks</i> like it belongs. These are not the Gutty Little Bruins, a nickname I've always hated for its back-handed, dismissive connotations. (If the word <i>little</i> is used to describe your football team, you're probably not very good no matter how gutty you might fancy yourself.) This UCLA team is fast and big and straight-up beat Nebraska physically. The offense is rocking and the defense is taking well to the 3-4. The field-goal unit needs work, but it hasn't cost them yet.</p>
<p>Now the challenge becomes mental. Can the Bruins stay hungry and focused with the world telling them how awesome they are? If they're for real they'll pound Houston this Saturday night and roar into the conference schedule with momentum. It's a mark of Mora's excellent start that UCLA fans expect nothing less.</p>
<p><i>Follow Dex on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/dexterfishmore">@dexterfishmore</a>.</i></p>
https://losangeles.sbnation.com/ucla-bruins/2012/9/14/3330730/ucla-football-jim-mora-brett-hundley-johnathan-franklin-heismanDexter Fishmore2012-08-27T05:30:17-07:002012-08-27T05:30:17-07:00UCLA Football Season Preview: New Coach, New Quarterback, New Direction?
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<p>UCLA opens its season on the road against Rice on Thursday at 4:30 p.m. PDT, on CBS Sports Network.</p> <p>Over the past decade, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/teams/ucla-bruins" class="sbn-auto-link">UCLA Bruins</a> football has distinguished itself as the most underachieving program in America. Despite advantages in geography and brand recognition that a hundred schools would envy, a combination of bad luck, bad coaching and a culture of complacency within the athletic department has kept the Bruins wedged into the Pac-10's (now the Pac-12's) middle tier. UCLA hasn't won the conference or come close to doing so since 1998, and patience among Bruin fans is running low. That USC is back in national-title contention isn't helping our collective mood. The NCAA penalties dropped on the Trojans a couple years ago were supposed to have allowed UCLA to "close the gap," in the now-ironic words of Rick Neuheisel. Instead USC breezed through its time in detention with scarcely a four-star recruit lost to Westwood and now looks poised for a depressingly awesome season.</p>
<p>In four years under Neuheisel the Bruins went 21-29. They never beat USC and their only bowl win was over Temple in the 2009 EagleBank Bowl. Neuheisel recruited successfully, ran a clean program and represented the school well off the field, but the lack of progress on it made his firing after last season inevitable. The school's first choice to replace him was Chris Petersen of Boise State, but when Petersen decided to stay put UCLA reached for a surprise candidate in Jim Mora, Jr. The 50-year-old Mora coached the Atlanta Falcons for three seasons and the Seattle Seahawks for one but has no prior experience coaching the college game. Was he a good pick? No one knows. Hiring from the NFL ranks worked brilliantly for USC when they stumbled upon Pete Carroll, but Bill Callahan, Al Groh and Dave Wannstedt offer sobering counterexamples.</p>
<p>Mora's task isn't one of "rebuilding," exactly. Neuheisel bequeathed to him a roster full of both talent and experience. Often when a new coach takes over, there's an understanding that the program will take a small and temporary step backwards as legacy players burn off eligibility and the new guy brings "his players" in off the recruiting trail. That's not the case here. Fans expect Mora's first Bruins team to be better than Neuheisel's last, and rightly so.</p>
<p>Mora's style is one of orderly, no-nonsense professionalism. He doesn't appear to be a volatile screamer in the Bo Pelini/Brian Kelly mold, but he's clearly more hard-driving than any UCLA coach in recent memory. Gone are such fripperies as the "Over the Wall" tradition whereby players went truant from summer practice. Instead the team got dragged to San Bernardino for a two-week camp in an environment resembling the inside of a convection oven. His efforts to change the culture of UCLA football are admirable and necessary. The program needs him to succeed where many before him have failed.</p>
<p><b>What to Expect From the Offense</b><br> The new offensive coordinator is Noel Mazzone, who spent the last two seasons calling plays at Arizona State. Mazzone's system relies heavily on a one-back, shotgun formation. The emphasis is on quickness and efficiency: the Bruins will go no-huddle more than we've ever seen them, and the passing game will feature fast three- and five-step drops. Mazzone's playbook is designed to stretch the defense horizontally, pull defenders out of the box and get skill players in one-on-one situations in space. He likes motioning the running back out wide and he <i>really</i> likes the bubble screen. It worked fairly nicely at ASU. In two years in Tempe Mazzone put together national top-30 offenses, and last season the Sun Devils lit up USC's defense pretty well in a 43-22 win. He seems like a promising hire.</p>
<p>The young man in charge of making the scheme work is redshirt freshman Brett Hundley. Over the summer Hundley beat out incumbents <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/77889/richard-brehaut" class="sbn-auto-link">Richard Brehaut</a> and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38189/kevin-prince" class="sbn-auto-link">Kevin Prince</a> for the starting quarterback job. He's got size (6'3", 223 pounds), he can run and he can make tacklers miss. At times in practice Hundley has struggled throwing the ball, especially since Mora named him the starter a couple weeks ago, and fans should expect him to make his share of freshman mistakes. But he has a much higher ceiling than either Brehaut or Prince, and he could well turn out to be a four-year starter and the most dynamic Bruins QB since Cade McNown. Brehaut and Prince have handled their demotions well, and if Hundley falters or gets hurt, either can provide a steady hand in relief.</p>
<p>I'm anticipating a big year from Johnathan Franklin. The senior running back has gone over a thousand yards (and over five yards a carry) in each of the last two seasons and could emerge from a deep field of Pac-12 running backs to snag all-conference honors. Depth at running back, however, isn't the greatest. Malcolm Jones and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/113870/jordon-james" class="sbn-auto-link">Jordon James</a> were highly recruited out of high school but have shown little in their careers. (To be fair, neither got much of a shot under Neuheisel.) One name to remember is <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136311/steven-manfro" class="sbn-auto-link">Steven Manfro</a>. A redshirt freshman from Valencia, Manfro is the classic "gritty overachiever" and has impressed with several long runs in camp. He'll initially get his shot on special teams and could work into offensive game plans as a change-of-pace option.</p>
<p>The Bruins' best player at any position might be tight end Joseph Fauria. An athletic 6'7" with good hands, Fauria is basically unguardable at the college level, but Bruin quarterbacks went whole games without looking his way last season. He has to be a featured component of the passing attack. There's ability elsewhere in the receiving corps but it's unproven. Shaquelle Evans, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38225/jerry-johnson" class="sbn-auto-link">Jerry Johnson</a> and former QB Darius Bell have been named tentative starters at WR. Not since Freddie Mitchell have the Bruins had a true outside-the-numbers receiving threat. Though nobody in the receiver corps has Mitchell's gamebreaking abilities, in guys like Evans and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136303/devin-lucien" class="sbn-auto-link">Devin Lucien</a> there should be more of a vertical element this season.</p>
<p>You have to go back even further to find the last really good UCLA offensive lineman, but that seems about to change with the return of Xavier Su'a-Filo from his two-year Mormon mission. In 2009 XSF started all 13 games at left tackle as a true freshman, and now he's back to anchor that critical spot. He has first-round NFL potential. The rest of the line is a work in progress. Rounding out the starting front five will be <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/77915/greg-capella" class="sbn-auto-link">Greg Capella</a> (left guard), <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136321/jake-brendel" class="sbn-auto-link">Jake Brendel</a> (center), <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38216/jeff-baca" class="sbn-auto-link">Jeff Baca</a> (right guard) and Brett Downey (right tackle). Baca and Capella have starting experience, but aside from XSF these guys have missed a lot of practice time to heat- and concussion-related issues. They'll need time to gel. With Nebraska coming to town on September 8, they won't get much.</p>
<p><b>What to Expect From the Defense</b><br> Improvement! Though admittedly, that's not saying a lot.</p>
<p>In 2011 the Bruins' defense fell somewhere between mediocre and terrible. Closer to terrible, if we're being honest. Against conference opponents they surrendered 30 points and over 400 yards per game. They got blasted apart by every decent offense they faced: Houston (38 points allowed), Texas (49), Stanford (45), USC (50) and Oregon (49). The most damaging weakness was in the front seven and specifically a defensive line that got pushed around all year long. For the season they totaled just 14 sacks, and they weren't much better controlling the ground game. In 10 of 14 contests opponents averaged over four yards a carry. Coordinator Joe Tresey got swept out after only one year on the job.</p>
<p>To replace Tresey, Mora tapped Lou Spanos, who's spent the last few seasons coaching the Washington Redskins linebackers. Like Mora, Spanos has no experience coaching at the college level. He has switched the Bruins' base defensive set from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Success in his system depends on large, physical defensive linemen who can tie up blockers and allow linebackers to flow freely and make stops. He has eight returning starters to work with. (It was nine before LB <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38208/patrick-larimore" class="sbn-auto-link">Patrick Larimore</a> decided to retire a couple weeks back before of concussions.)</p>
<p>Despite underachieving horrendously in 2011, the defensive line has quality and depth. It looks as if 320-plus-pound Seali'I Epenesa will get first crack at starting nose tackle. He's backed up by a pair of sophomores who were four-star recruits: Brandon Willis, who recently transferred in from North Carolina, and Kevin McReynolds. Starting at ends will be <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38229/datone-jones" class="sbn-auto-link">Datone Jones</a> and Cassius Marsh. Now a senior, Jones is perennially the subject of preseason hype, and it's time for him to produce when it counts. Marsh was one of the more dependable linemen last year. The Bruins' two most high-upside linemen, sophomore <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/113888/owamagbe-odighizuwa" class="sbn-auto-link">Owamagbe Odighizuwa</a> and true freshmen <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/162647/ellis-mccarthy" class="sbn-auto-link">Ellis McCarthy</a>, will start the season further down on the depth chart but could emerge as key playmakers.</p>
<p>Several guys have changed positions to help fill the need for linebackers created by the shift to a 3-4 alignment and the loss of Larimore (the Bruins' leading tackler in 2011). Former defensive ends Damian Holmes and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/77913/keenan-graham" class="sbn-auto-link">Keenan Graham</a> dropped weight to become LB's, and Anthony Barr switched over from offense, where he'd been used as an F-back. Holmes is likely to start at left inside backer and Barr at ROLB. Their inexperience at the position is a concern. Fortunately sophomore <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/113876/eric-kendricks" class="sbn-auto-link">Eric Kendricks</a> (brother of onetime Cal Bear Mychael Kendricks, who was Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year last season) and junior <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/113877/jordan-zumwalt" class="sbn-auto-link">Jordan Zumwalt</a> are back. Both are fast, physical and experienced and look like perfect fits for Spanos's scheme.</p>
<p>You had to grade the secondary on a curve last year because it's hard to shut down a passing game when there's zero pressure on the quarterback. Starting corners <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38187/aaron-hester" class="sbn-auto-link">Aaron Hester</a> and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/77894/sheldon-price" class="sbn-auto-link">Sheldon Price</a> led beleaguered existences, but both have good size and can cover. In a conference stacked with excellent receivers, they'll be under fire weekly. Touted true freshmen <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/162625/ishmael-adams" class="sbn-auto-link">Ishmael Adams</a> and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/162615/marcus-rios" class="sbn-auto-link">Marcus Rios</a> round out the CB rotation. Both have looked very good in camp. Although there's not as much depth at safety, FS Tevin McDonald played well as a true freshman last year and looks like a potential star. <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38194/andrew-abbott" class="sbn-auto-link">Andrew Abbott</a> and Dalton Hilliard will split playing time at strong safety. Neither is a game changer, but they can hold the fort.</p>
<p><b>What to Expect From the Special Teams</b><br> UCLA hasn't had a dangerous return game since Maurice Jones-Drew was around. Under Neuheisel the emphasis was on ball security - catch it and get down - an approach that constantly left the Bruins in poor field position. Mora seems inclined to put faster, shiftier guys in return roles. Jordon James will get the first crack returning punts, and he and Manfro will return kickoffs.</p>
<p>The punting game is in the capable hands of senior Jeff Locke. He might be the best punter in the country and will certainly kick in the NFL someday. He'll handle kickoffs as well: last season he boomed 20 touchbacks in 65 tries. True freshman <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/162620/ka-imi-fairbairn" class="sbn-auto-link">Ka'imi Fairbairn</a> will handle field goals. As a high-school senior in Hawaii he connected on a 55-yarder. Locke is the emergency option if neither Fairbairn nor walk-on JC transfer <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/162621/justin-moreno" class="sbn-auto-link">Justin Moreno</a> prove reliable.</p>
<p><b>The Schedule</b><br> The Bruins' out-of-conference slate begins this Thursday night against a weak <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/teams/rice-owls" class="sbn-auto-link">Rice Owls</a> team but quickly gets much more challenging. As mentioned, Nebraska visits Pasadena on September 8, then a week later Houston comes to town for what looks like a classic trap game. It'll be too easy to overlook the Cougars because they lost star QB Case Keenum to the pros and head coach Kevin Sumlin to Texas A&M. I don't expect Houston to drop off as much as many people think they will. In fact, it would not surprise me if UCLA beat Nebraska and then lost to the Cougs. (Well, it would be surprise me a <i>little</i>, but it's a real possibility.)</p>
<p>In conference the Bruins catch a couple breaks. Five of their nine Pac-12 games are at home, and they don't have to play Oregon out of the North Division. (They miss Washington as well.) The two scariest opponents, Stanford and USC, both have to come to the Rose Bowl, which could be either a blessing or a curse. On the one hand, it makes an upset a little more likely. On the other hand, those teams might be so much better that home field makes no difference at all, in which event two precious home dates are wasted on unwinnable games.</p>
<p><b>Outlook and Prediction</b><br> Look, this isn't the year for UCLA to break into the conference elite. Not with new coaches, new systems on both sides of the ball, a freshman quarterback and an unsettled O-line. The pieces aren't quite in place for a run to the Rose Bowl. Nor is it at all likely that UCLA can break its streak of five straight losses to USC. That's the bad news.</p>
<p>The good news is, the blue-chippers Neuheisel recruited are starting to filter up through the depth chart. Talent-wise this is the best Bruins team in many years. Also, aside from USC, Oregon and Stanford there's no one in the conference clearly better than UCLA and many teams that are clearly worse. In the South Division alone, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado are all in the early rebuilding phase. The race to finish fourth in the conference looks likely to come down to UCLA and Utah, and the Utes have to come to Pasadena.</p>
<p><b>I'm predicting an 8-4 season for the Bruins.</b> The losses will be to USC, Stanford, either Nebraska or Houston and then a random underdog along the way. Assuming the USC-Oregon winner plays for the BCS Championship, the loser goes to the Rose and Stanford to the Alamo, the Brus' 8-4 record should be good enough to land them in the Holiday Bowl, which would be their best finish in almost 15 years.</p>
<p>For more news and notes on UCLA Bruins football, be sure to read</p>
<p><i>Follow Dex on Twitter </i><a href="https://twitter.com/dexterfishmore"><i>@dexterfishmore</i></a><i>.</i></p>
https://losangeles.sbnation.com/2012/8/27/3270990/ucla-bruins-2012-football-season-previewDexter Fishmore2012-08-09T21:26:03-07:002012-08-09T21:26:03-07:00Dwight Howard Trade Reopens Lakers' Championship Window
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<p>Mitch Kupchak has been waiting all summer. He's been patiently marking his time, waiting for <span>Dwight Howard</span> to come available at the right price. Now, <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8252042/sources-dwight-howard-los-angeles-lakers-four-team-deal-complete">according to "multiple sources" cited by ESPN</a>, it's actually happening. Barring a dramatic and unforeseen turn of events, on Friday morning the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/">Orlando Magic</a> will trade Howard to the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/">Lakers</a>, who will part with <span>Andrew Bynum</span> but not, crucially, <span>Pau Gasol</span>. That's the deal Kupchak has been gunning for all along, and if you didn't think he could pull it off you haven't been paying attention.</p>
<p>The trade is a four-teamer, with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.denverstiffs.com/">Nuggets</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.libertyballers.com/">76ers</a> chipping in to make it all work. Philly will end up with Bynum and send <span>Andre Iguodala</span> to the Nugs. The Sixers will also get <span>Jason Richardson</span> from Orlando, while the Magic come away with the tanking-friendly package of <span>Arron Afflalo</span>, <span>Al Harrington</span>, <span>Nikola Vucevic</span> and picks. Throughout the day Thursday reports conflicted about whether Gasol would be moved in the deal, but ESPN's Marc Stein is reporting that the version getting phoned into league offices on Friday <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/233748043005034496">does not include Pau</a>.</p>
<p>Assuming this unfolds as expected, Kupchak has orchestrated a virtuoso offseason comparable to Jerry West's legendary summer of '96. With the additions of Howard and <span>Steve Nash</span>, not to mention <span>Antawn Jamison</span> and <span>Jordan Hill</span>, Kupchak transformed the Lakers in a span of about five weeks. What had been an aging team obviously in its twilight is now the favorite to win the Western Conference and a good bet to bring home the franchise's 17th championship banner. Rarely in league history has a team boasted the star-level talent the Lakers will deploy next season.</p>
<p>Howard's impact will be greatest at the defensive end of the floor. Bynum had occasional stretches of defensive dominance but Dwight is more consistently influential at that end. His Orlando teams have been at or near the top of the league's defensive tables almost every year of his career, and there's no reason to think he can't make the Lakers' D elite. On offense, Dwight's existence will be so, so much easier than it was in Orlando. Nash and Pau, two of the best passers ever at their positions, will feed him as many lobs as he can handle. Double-teams will be much less frequent. Pick-and-roll dunks will be very frequent.</p>
<p>Nothing, of course, is guaranteed. Dwight's back, which underwent surgery in April, will be an ongoing risk, as will the health of Nash and that of the roster's many other thirtysomethings. Outside shooting remains a real concern even with Nash on board. There's not yet a credible back-up to <span>Kobe Bryant</span> at shooting guard. And somehow <span>Mike Brown</span> has to make this all come together. Integrating Nash, when Kobe has never played with a real point guard, was going to be challenge enough. Dwight's arrival raises the Lakers' ceiling but adds yet another layer of complexity.</p>
<p>Kupchak, meanwhile, is in line for deification. In the face of a new CBA designed to keep big-market teams from stockpiling superstars, he added Nash and Howard at minimal cost. On his watch the Lakers opened up two championship windows: first with the Gasol trade in 2008, and then after that edition of the Lake Show ran its course, he's set the stage for another run of title contention by adding an MVP-caliber big man.</p>
<p>The new season can't start soon enough.</p>
https://losangeles.sbnation.com/2012/8/9/3232635/dwight-howard-lakers-trade-analysis-andrew-bynumDexter Fishmore2012-07-04T21:47:03-07:002012-07-04T21:47:03-07:00Reborn On The Fourth Of July: What Steve Nash Means For The Lakers
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<p>On Wednesday the Lakers shocked the NBA by landing the two-time MVP for a package of draft picks. How does it affect their title odds and their chances of landing Dwight Howard?</p> <p>The <a href="http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/03/report-lakers-quietly-enter-chase-for-steve-nash/">rumor first surfaced</a> on Tuesday evening: "<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/">Lakers</a> quietly enter chase for <span>Steve Nash</span>." No one thought it would come to anything. In its efforts to revitalize a team that had fallen well off the championship pace, the Lakers' front office had been making inquiries about every available superstar, and this seemed just another tissue-thin piece of ephemeral gossip. It's not like the Lakers could straight-up offer a credible free-agent deal to Nash, as they were already far over the NBA's salary cap. A sign-and-trade was the only possibility, and would Phoenix owner Robert Sarver, who fancies the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/">Suns</a> as some kind of rival to the Lakers (stop laughing, that's rude), really sign off on sending the most popular player in Suns' history to Los Angeles?</p>
<p>Yes, as it happens. Sarver would, and he has. On Wednesday the Lakers and Suns agreed to a jaw-dropping trade that sends Nash to the purple and gold in return for first-round draft picks in 2013 and 2015, second-round picks in 2013 and 2014 and $3 million in cash. The Lakers will sign the two-time MVP to a three-year deal that <a href="http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/8130840/sources-steve-nash-headed-los-angeles-lakers-sign-trade-deal">pays him more than $25 million</a>. From a salary-cap perspective, the Lakers are able to absorb the payroll boost via the traded-player exception created by last December's giveaway of Lamar Odom to the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/">Mavericks</a>. Nash opted for the Lakers over the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.raptorshq.com/">Raptors</a>, who <a href="https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/220699949816496128">could have paid him $10 million more</a>, and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.postingandtoasting.com/">Knicks</a>, who made a determined pursuit of the own, so he could close out his career with a team in title contention while remaining just a short flight away from his kids.</p>
<p>So without parting with any of their current players, the Lakers have acquired their best point guard since <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/">Magic</a> Johnson. Nash has spent a career supercharging offensive attacks with his impeccable court vision, creativity, passing touch and outside shooting, and now he brings that skillset to a Laker attack desperately in need of it. He and <span>Kobe Bryant</span>, with three MVP awards and 17 appearances on All-NBA first or second teams between them, form one of the most decorated backcourts in league history. This could be an inflection point in franchise history comparable to the deal that landed <span>Pau Gasol</span> in 2008.</p>
<p>Let's try to sort through some of the many, many questions raised by the Lakers' Fourth of July bombshell.</p>
<p><b>Steve Nash is old, right? What does he have left?</b><br> He'll be 39 when next season starts. His game, though, has hardly slipped at all. The past three seasons he's led the league in assist rate while posting his usual deadly shooting numbers. He's missed only a handful of games the past several years while averaging over 30 minutes a night. Perhaps he's not quite the force he was in the Suns' "seven seconds or less" heydey, but like John Stockton (and Kobe himself), his late-thirties decline has been slow and gradual. <span>Mike Brown</span> will need to manage his minutes carefully, and Gary Vitti the Laker training staff will have to do stellar maintenance work, but otherwise there's no reason to think Nash won't be a good-to-excellent player over the life of this deal.</p>
<p><b>But isn't this like when the Lakers signed Gary Payton when he was a million years old? That sucked.</b><br> Yes it did, and look... Nash's age, however well preserved he might be, presents the risk of a performance drop-off. But Payton was shoehorned into the Triangle, an offensive system that was a poor fit to begin with, and more of his value was tied into his defense, which suffered when his athleticism started to fade. What Nash brings to the party (again... passing, smarts, pick-and-roll creativity, three-point range) is less vulnerable to age effects. There's risk to this deal but accepting that risk, in a final push to get more banners before Kobe retires, is a no-brainer decision.</p>
<p><b>How does this affect the Laker offense?</b><br> A whole damn lot, one hopes. Last year the Laker offense was a plodding mess. When they weren't dumping the ball into <span>Andrew Bynum</span> in the low post and waiting for him to pass out of a double-team (or not), they were posting up Kobe 23 feet from the basket and waiting for him to make a move (or just shoot). All that must change. Brown and offensive coordinator <span>John Kuester</span> need to give Nash the freedom to play with pace. Kobe will have to live without the ball in his hands for significant stretches. The Laker big men will have to set much better screens so Nash can weave his pick-and-roll sorcery.</p>
<p>There will be an adjustment period, but when it all comes together... <i>damn, girl</i>. It's going to be beautiful. The Lakers finally, at long last, have somebody who can make a three-pointer, which in itself will improve spacing and stress opposing defenses. Everybody, guards and bigs alike, will get better looks with Nash at the controls. No one's better than Nash when it comes to generating easy buckets at the rim, so Bynum (if he's still a Laker next season) should see his dunk total spike. And Gasol and Nash - similar in their taste for fluid, elegant ball - should develop a delightful rapport.</p>
<p><b>Wait... Gasol? Aren't the Lakers shopping him around?</b><br> Yes they are. Or at least, they were. The Nash trade makes it much less likely the Lakers will pull the trigger on a Gasol deal. It's not that they wanted to get rid of Pau, but that doing so seemed the only way to improve other areas of the roster in any significant way. Now that they've done precisely that, odds are they'll hang onto Pau and make him the deadliest fourth option in NBA history.</p>
<p><b>And what effect will Nash have on the Lakers' D?</b><br> Not much, unfortunately. Nash is a poor defender and isn't going to stop <span>Russell Westbrook</span> or solve the Lakers' inability to generate turnovers. But hey. the team is used to poor defensive point guards. Nash's D is a problem, but for the Lakers it's one they've lived with for a long time and have experience in scheming around.</p>
<p><b>Who can people who hate the Lakers blame for all this?</b><br> Dan Gilbert and Mark Cuban. Remember, the Lakers should have had <span>Chris Paul</span> after they fairly negotiated a trade with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nba/teams/new-orleans-hornets">Hornets</a> that would've sent CP3 to Los Angeles for Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol. Gilbert and Cuban bitched up a storm to David Stern, who caved to their whining and killed the deal in the infamous "basketball reasons" episode. That triggered <span>Lamar Odom's</span> meltdown, which quickly led to his being dealt to Dallas in return for nothing. And <i>that</i> created the traded-player exception by which the Lakers are able to pay Nash $25 million over three years. So the Lake Show gets Nash instead of Chris Paul and get to keep Gasol for their troubles. Excellent work, Gilbert and Cubes! You guys are the best.</p>
<p><b>Are the Lakers now the favorites win it all next year?</b><br> Slow down there, homes. The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.hothothoops.com/">Heat</a> <a href="http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=280044">are still the favorites</a> to win the title next year, and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/">Thunder</a> are favored to come out of the West. But in Vegas Wednesday's trade bumped the Lakers' championship odds up to 8 to 1, and they have to be considered legitimate challengers to both the Heat and Thunder. Much depends on follow-up roster moves.</p>
<p><b>Speaking of which, does this improve the Lakers' shot at landing Dwight Howard?<br></b>Sure does. Dwight has maintained that he doesn't want to be dealt to Los Angeles, but that was before it meant getting to play with Point God Nash. If he can't get excited about being a Laker superstar and playing for rings alongside a couple all-time greats, there's something wrong with how his brain works. Mitch Kupchak should offer Bynum to Orlando straight up and trust that when Dwight gets to L.A., Nash and Kobe will persuade him to extend. If the deal's not there, riding with Bynum works too. Kupchak is now dealing from a position of strength.</p>
<p><b>What other moves might we expect?</b><br><span>Grant Hill</span> could soon be a Laker. He and Nash were thought to be a package deal to begin with, and Frank Isola of the New York Daily News reports this evening that Hill <a href="https://twitter.com/FisolaNYDN/status/220721236446162945">will either join the Lakers or retire</a>. Beyond that, the focus should be on stockpiling shooters. <span>Rashard Lewis</span>, recently bought out by the Hornets, is a candidate for mini-MLE money. <span>Brandon Rush</span> and <span>Nick Young</span> are also possibilities though they might be out of the Lakers' price range.</p>
<p><b>So Ramon Sessions is gone, right?</b><br> Yep. Steve Blake and <span>Darius Morris</span> are under contract, so it makes no sense to pay Sessions $5 million or a year or whatever he'll get offered by another team. It's possible, though, the Lakers will use their Sessions Bird rights in a sign-and-trade for bench help.</p>
<p><b>What number will Nash wear with the Lakers?</b><br> Not number 13, which he's worn his entire pro career. That belonged to Wilt Chamberlain and has been retired to the Staples rafters. In college at Santa Clara Nash wore number 11, which happens to be available in purple and gold. The last Laker to wear number 11 was <span>Coby Karl</span> in 2008.</p>
<p><b>This is awesome! But does it mean we have to stop mocking Jim Buss?</b><br> Yes, and we probably never should've started. There was never solid evidence that Jim isn't up to the job. He just didn't inspire confidence because he's not his dad, he's not Jeannie Buss (who's always lived more in the public eye and whom we got to know and grow comfortable with over many years), and whenever he was photographed he looked goofy as hell with his baseball cap and "aging party guy" mullet. But twice on his brief watch the Lakers have pulled off league-shaking deals: first for CP3, which got scotched for reasons no one could've predicted, and now again for Nash. Make fun of the mullet all you want, but it's clear Jim Buss knows what he's doing, even if that's just "sign the checks and let Mitch run the show."</p>
<p><i>Follow Dex on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dexterfishmore">@dexterfishmore</a>.</i></p>
https://losangeles.sbnation.com/los-angeles-lakers/2012/7/4/3138257/nba-lakers-suns-steve-nash-trade-analysis-dwight-howard-andrew-bynum-pau-gasolDexter Fishmore2012-07-02T07:17:25-07:002012-07-02T07:17:25-07:00Lakers Trade Rumors: Thoughts On Pau Gasol's Slow-Motion Departure
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<p>Pau seems ticketed for Atlanta, Minneapolis or Houston. He's still really good, which is why he's got to go.</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Lakers</a>' offseason has so far been memorable for the preposterous, though understandable, statements issued by the front office. First, on June 19, prince regent Jim Buss said <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jun/19/sports/la-sp-simers-20120620">he didn't want to trade Pau Gasol</a> and warned fans not to expect it. Then last week GM Mitch Kupchak opined that if the Lakers' roster is kept substantially intact, he doesn't see <a href="http://sulia.com/channel/la-lakers/f/181c5048-529d-41d0-be37-61c2ff5ce851/?source=twitter">why they can't be in the hunt</a> for a title next year. No one believes either of these things. The latter flies in the face of two straight seasons' worth of evidence - two seasons in which the Lakers didn't sniff the conference finals, let alone another title. The former is discredited by <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/eye-on-basketball/19459036/report-hawks-turned-down-pau-gasol---josh-smith-trade-due-to-lakers-high-price">a report over the weekend</a> that the Lakers have already offered Pau to the <a href="https://www.peachtreehoops.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Atlanta Hawks</a> (the team that originally drafted him, btw) for <span>Josh Smith</span> and "another major piece." The Hawks rejected the opening bid like Smith swatting a floater, but those talks aren't dead. Pau's the key to any meaningful improvement the Lakers might make this offseason and the whole world knows it. He'll get dangled in front of every team that might offer solutions to some of the Lakers' many needs.</p>
<p>Those needs haven't changed in two years, which explains why the Lake Show hasn't won a title in two years. They require - they <i>still</i> require - the services of a point guard (<span>Ramon Sessions</span> is a free agent, though the Lakers can outbid other teams via Bird rights), someone who can make a three-pointer, and a frontcourt reserve (<span>Jordan Hill</span> is a free agent and attracting much interest). Speed and youth are preferred, and if a trading partner could take on some of the Lakers' deadweight salary, that would be great too. In his noble, very possibly doomed, effort to fill these holes, Kupchak will be hemmed in by the new collective bargaining agreement that limits the Lakers to a $3 million mini-midlevel exception and threatens nut-crushing luxury-tax penalties should they get too loose with the spending. And nobody's taking on the contracts of <span>Metta World Peace</span> or <span>Steve Blake</span> unless they get something sweet along with it. Something like... <span>Pau Gasol</span>.</p>
<p>It's worth taking a moment to assess who exactly Pau is at this moment of his career. Many Laker fans have soured on him to a startling and not quite defensible degree. No question he's declined from his 2009-10 peak, his scoring efficiency in particular. In 2008-09, his first full season as a Laker, he posted a stellar 62 percent True Shooting mark. That fell to 59 percent over the next two seasons before dropping to 55 percent last season. Even without the stats one can see in his play his diminution as an offensive weapon. Rarely do we see his full range of once-devastating post moves. He's become indecisive, visibly uncomfortable in <span>Mike Brown's</span> offensive schemes. In the playoffs he's turned in more straight-up bad performances than one would expect from a guy with his talents. Much of the criticism he's received is justified.</p>
<p>More of it, though, is not. Pau's had to transition into the third option in the Laker offense, which forces him to spend a lot more time on the perimeter. That's not an ideal spot for him, but he's managed it reasonably well. He does good work on the glass, posting strong rebounding numbers even with <span>Andrew Bynum</span> sucking up a lot of caroms. His passing touch and court vision are sharp as ever. And despite an unshakable reputation for "softness" he's been impressively durable. Over the past couple seasons he's led the Lakers in minutes played, covering for a lack of frontcourt depth and Bynum's all too frequent injuries and suspensions. All the while he's been as pleasant a teammate and off-court ambassador as a franchise could hope for.</p>
<p>In other words, Pau still has a ton of value. The Lakers aren't trying to move him because of what he's lost but how much he has left. Aside from <span>Kobe Bryant</span> (untradeable for about eight different reasons) and Bynum (deemed untradeable unless <span>Dwight Howard</span> is the guy coming back) no other Laker has a shred of appeal to other teams. The time for a trade is now: in a year Pau will be older, with one season left on his deal, and nobody's giving anything good for a single-season rental. (Actually the time for a deal was probably a year ago, but whatever.)</p>
<p>Gleaning what we can from colliding trade rumors, Pau's likely to end up in Houston, Minnesota or Atlanta. A <a href="https://www.thedreamshake.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rockets</a> deal would involve point guard Kyle Lowry, Minny would involve <span>Derrick Williams</span> and pieces, and of course there's Atlanta offering Josh Smith. (Speculation has it the other "major piece" Mitch requested from the Hawks is <span>Jeff Teague</span>.) Without knowing specifics it's hard to judge mooted transactions, but Kupchak is thinking along the right lines: youth, speed and no bad contracts.</p>
<p>I'm most tantalized by the idea of adding Smith. He'll be 27 years old when next season starts and would be the most athletic big man the Lakers have had since early-period Shaq. Together he and Bynum could be a fearsome combination, especially at the defensive end. If they subdue their knuckleheadery and play focused, cooperative ball (I know, I know) the Lakers could become a top-five defensive team. Smith's scoring efficiency is subpar but we could expect that to improve as he moves into a tertiary offensive role. His existing deal has only one more year left on it ($13.2 million, not egregious) but better the deal expire too early than late, and the Lakers will hold his Bird rights if they want to extend him. Gravy? He's close to Howard and might persuade D12 to drop his weird insistence that he'll <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--dwight-howard--i-ll-only-re-sign-with-one-team.html;_ylt=ArKbGx_mqSnZvYId08kKvwi8vLYF">only sign a new deal with Brooklyn</a>.</p>
<p>The Lakers probably won't find a better deal than this, but I get why Mitch went big in his first offer. The free-agent period is just starting, and the worst that happens is Atlanta says no. Odds are the deal will still be there if nothing more spectacular surfaces.</p>
<p><i>Follow Dex on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dexterfishmore">@dexterfishmore</a>.</i></p>
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https://losangeles.sbnation.com/los-angeles-lakers/2012/7/2/3131467/lakers-trade-rumors-pau-gasol-trade-atlDexter Fishmore2012-05-21T04:30:06-07:002012-05-21T04:30:06-07:00A Superpower In Twilight: Thoughts On The Lakers' Near-Certain Demise
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<p>Following a brutal Game Four collapse, the curtain's about to fall on this version of the Lake Show. Tonight's Game Five could be ugly.</p> <p>Strictly speaking, it's still too early to start shoveling dirt on the <a href="https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Lakers</a>. The patient isn't quite dead. It's bleeding everywhere and missing an internal organ or two, but tonight in Oklahoma City it'll get wheeled out onto the court where it could, theoretically, summon some old Laker magic to force a Game Six back at Staples. Far more likely, the <a href="https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Thunder</a> will calmly sign the DNR and lower the eyelids on the purple and gold. To believe otherwise requires ignoring both NBA playoff history and the specific history of the Lakers during the Kobe Bryant era.</p>
<p>Teams that find themselves in the Lakers' predicament, down three games to one in a playoff series, have a life expectancy measured in hours, not days. Forget storming back to win the series: <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story?id=7903862&_slug_=2012-nba-playoffs-comeback-odds-teams-3-1&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fstory%3fid%3d7903862%26_slug_%3d2012-nba-playoffs-comeback-odds-teams-3-1">in just eight out of 186 tries</a> (or about four percent of the time) has an NBA team pulled off that trick. It's actually an immense challenge just surviving to see another game, especially if Game Five is on the road. Fewer than a quarter of the 125 teams who've hit the road down 3-1 have lived to see Game Six. Which makes sense... if you're trailing three games to one, you're probably the worse team to begin with. Needing to take three straight from a superior opponent is a daunting, demoralizing prospect made only more so by having to start the long march back behind enemy lines. Preparation suffers and the visiting team's gameday effort is often of the mail-it-in variety.</p>
<p>When it comes to slapping postage on a road elimination game and slinking into the offseason, <span>Kobe Bryant's</span> Lakers are the unquestioned masters. Here's how they've fared the last five times they've faced elimination away from Staples.</p>
<p> </p>
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="89" valign="bottom">
<p align="center"><b>Year</b></p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="bottom">
<p align="center"><b>Round</b></p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="bottom">
<p align="center"><b>Game</b></p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="bottom">
<p><b>Opponent</b></p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="bottom">
<p><b>Result</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">2004</p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">Finals</p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">5</p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="top">
<p>Pistons</p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="top">
<p>Lost by 13</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">2006</p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">1</p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">7</p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="top">
<p>Suns</p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="top">
<p>Lost by 31</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">2007</p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">1</p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">5</p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="top">
<p>Suns</p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="top">
<p>Lost by 9</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">2008</p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">Finals</p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">6</p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="top">
<p>Celtics</p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="top">
<p>Lost by 39</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">2011</p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">2</p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center">4</p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="top">
<p>Mavericks</p>
</td>
<td width="89" valign="top">
<p>Lost by 36</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>That's five straight losses with an average margin of defeat of 25.6. (Not to mention, the final score of the 2004 Game Five loss to the Pistons was deceptively kind to the Lakers, who trailed by 23 after the third quarter and made the result look semi-respectable in garbage time.) This history of getting demolished in road elimination games isn't entirely Kobe's fault, of course, but it's a distinctive aspect of the teams he's starred on that when up against the wall, away from Staples' reassuring confines, they meekly submit.</p>
<p>(Last time the Lakers won a road elimination game? Almost a decade ago, in Game Seven of the 2002 Western Conference Finals, when they knocked off the <a href="https://www.sactownroyalty.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Kings</a> in Sacramento.)</p>
<p>I suppose there's encouragement to be mined from the Lake Show's competitiveness even while losing Games Two and Four to the Thunder. Since hammering the weary Lakers in Game One, the Thunder have been only the slightly better of the two teams. Over the last three games they've scored 1.066 points per possession to the Lakers' 1.062. That's not much of a difference! Squint hard enough in the right light and you can almost convince yourself these teams are about even.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the Lakers, "about even" won't cut it anymore. If they're going to beat the Thunder three straight times (and twice in Oklahoma City), they need to be the significantly better side, and it's hard to see how that's going to happen unless the Thunder suffer a major injury or <span>Russell Westbrook</span> gets arrested for crimes against fashion. In the wake of their still-hard-to-believe Saturday night meltdown, the Lakers' team chemistry has turned poisonous. Kobe publicly scolded <span>Pau Gasol</span> for <a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketball/nba/lakers/la-sp-plaschke-lakers-20120520,0,4732388.column">not being more assertive</a>. Pau responded by observing that there were "a lot of mistakes" in the fourth quarter, not just his late turnover, an implied criticism of Kobe's 2-for-10 shooting in the final period.</p>
<p>They're both right. Pau looks increasingly unsure of his role in the Laker offense, and after his terrible series against the Mavericks last season, his drifting about in playoff games is getting old. He needs to trust his talents and playmaking instincts. He needs to make quick decisions with the ball. He needs to shoot decisively when a good look is available. As for Kobe, there's nothing new to say about his insistence on dominating the ball late in games. It's bad for the Lakers, everyone but him seems to know it, and it if it hasn't changed yet it probably never will. Even the great ones are imperfect.</p>
<p>But the civil war raging in Lakerdom between #TeamKobe and #TeamPau is, in a sense, missing the point. The main reason the Lakers lost was their inability to get defensive stops in the second half, and that's on the entire team. After scoring 1.02 points per possession in the first half, the Thunder ripped the Laker D apart to the tune of 1.39 per trip in the second. The Lakers had no solution for either Westbrook or <span>Kevin Durant</span>, neither of whom sat over the final 24 minutes. In that stretch Westbrook scored 23 points on 64 percent true shooting and Durant scored 19 on 86 percent true shooting. Those guys were just too hungry and too good, young talent sweeping aside the old. It was bound to happen eventually. The lockout and the death-march schedule that ensued made sure it happened this year.</p>
<p>The NBA has configured itself so that mini-dynasties like the Kobe-Pau Lakers can't hold power for long. The salary cap makes it difficult to surround highly paid stars with quality role players. The luxury tax makes it more so. And if you're good, you're always drafting from a pool of college talent already fished clean by worse teams. Consider: the Thunder have drafted in the top five three times in the last five years. The Lakers haven't had a top-five pick since <i>James Worthy</i>. It's not at all strange that the Thunder franchise has overtaken the Lakers on the court. It would be very strange if they hadn't.</p>
<p><i>Follow Dex on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dexterfishmore">@dexterfishmore</a>. Thanks to Neil Paine of <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/">Basketball Reference</a> for the research on past playoff series.</i></p>
https://losangeles.sbnation.com/los-angeles-lakers/2012/5/21/3033546/lakers-thunder-nba-playoffs-analysis-kobe-bryant-pau-gasol-russell-westbrook-kevin-durantDexter Fishmore2012-05-14T05:30:23-07:002012-05-14T05:30:23-07:00Lakers Vs. Thunder, NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Stormy Weather Ahead
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<p>All signs point to a decisive Thunder victory. Can the Lakers thrive in their underdog role?</p> <p>For the first time since they traded for <span>Pau Gasol</span> in February 2008, the <a href="https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Lakers</a> are underdogs in a playoff series. It's easy to see why. The <a href="https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Oklahoma City Thunder</a>, who host the Lakers tonight in Game One of their second-round matchup, were the stronger squad by far in the regular season, won two of the teams' three head-to-head regular-season contests and hold home-court advantage. They've been resting and healing for nine days since tying a ribbon around their first-round sweep of the <a href="https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Dallas Mavericks</a> on May 5. At Chesapeake Energy Arena the Thunder were a superb 26-7 this season, while the Lakers lost more than half their games on the road. The Thunder have the better coach, less mercurial top-line talent and enough accumulated playoff experience to put to rest any concerns about their youth. It's very possible that four games from now we Laker fans will wish our team had bowed out quietly against the <a href="https://www.denverstiffs.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Nuggets</a> and spared us the weeklong humiliation that may lie in store.</p>
<p>When the Lakers last met OKC in the playoffs, back in the first round in 2010, the Thunder were rising upstarts who won primarily with stellar defense. Their identity has shifted since then. They've become an offensive powerhouse, finishing the regular season second in the NBA in offensive efficiency, thanks to the maturation of <span>Kevin Durant</span> and <span>Russell Westbrook</span> and the emergence of shooting guard <span>James Harden</span> as a lethal third option. They're still fairly strong on D, ranking 10th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. In the paint <span>Serge Ibaka</span>, <span>Kendrick Perkins</span> and <span>Nick Collison</span> make life painful and easy baskets rare for opponents. No longer, though, do we wonder how OKC can keep up with the best offensive teams in the league. They're one of them, and if <span>Mike Brown</span> is ever going to weave the defensive magic he was brought in to produce, now would be a great time.</p>
<p>The challenges start at the point-guard position. You know how in the first round <span>Ty Lawson</span> blitzed the Laker D with incredible speed to the rim, making <span>Ramon Sessions</span> and <span>Steve Blake</span> appear to be nailed to the floor? Westbrook is a bigger and stronger but just-as-fast version of Lawson. He'll help the Lakers out with one or two awful shooting nights, but keeping him out of the lane consistently will be next to impossible. Sessions, for all the nice things he does for the Laker attack, is an average defender at best and can't handle Westbrook one on one. At times <span>Kobe Bryant</span> will check him, but Kobe can't expend max energy on D since his scoring is so critical. At times <span>Metta World Peace</span> will give Westbrook a different look, but he'll be needed on Durant detail. Maybe <span>Devin Ebanks</span> can take Westbrook for short stretches, but he looked overwhelmed against Denver. You see the problem here. And it only gets worse when Harden's in the game and there are three elite perimeter scorers to worry about.</p>
<p>Of the OKC stars it's Durant, the newly crowned scoring champion, who presents the least reason for concern in this series. That's because MWP is one of the few guys in the league who can trouble KD one on one. Metta knows how to make Durant uncomfortable - body him up, knock him down on occasion, swipe at the ball when it's brought low - and he knows this is his moment. MWP was put on the earth to guard guys like Durant, and his seven-game suspension is now kind of a good thing since it kept his legs fresh for the task.</p>
<p>At the team level, keep an eye on the Thunder's turnovers and free-throw attempts. They were the most turnover-prone team in the NBA this year, but the Lakers were <i>easily</i> the worst team when it came to forcing turnovers, so this is weakness-on-weakness. Whether OKC can get to the line is a matter of strength-on-strength. The Thunder were the best at generating (and making) free-throw attempts, while the Laker D was the best at preventing them.</p>
<p>When the Lakers have the ball they'll have to score more effectively than they did against OKC in the regular season. Across three games they averaged just 1.02 points per possession, well below their season average. They've had particular trouble generating points inside. Although none of the Thunder big men are as large as <span>Andrew Bynum</span>, they're all tough and talented. Perkins and Collison have good strength and know how to keep guys like Bynum from receiving the ball in his preferred spot. Ibaka is the league's best shot-blocker by a huge margin. Neither they nor OKC as a team, however, excels on the defensive glass. The Lakers are a strong offensive-rebounding team and punished Denver in that respect in the first round. They'll need a ton of second-chance points in this series since their shooting numbers will be poor to disastrous.</p>
<p>They'll also need Kobe to score often and efficiently, which he couldn't do in the three regular-season matchups. He averaged over 24 a game against OKC but shot horrendously, missing more than two-thirds of his attempts. Obviously if that trend doesn't reverse itself, the Lakers have no hope of advancing.</p>
<p>In so many ways, this feels like the end of the road for the Lake Show. Against the Nuggets they got away with their trademark flakiness, but just barely. Nothing in their track record suggests they're ready to buckle down for a best-of-seven siege of a rising superpower. Game One could be especially grim. The OKC crowd will be rabid and the Lakers will still be recovering from the drama of their first-round Game Seven. Maybe they can spring an upset in Game Two, but their best bet is to take Games Three and Four back at Staples and hope the gathering pressure starts to affect the young Thunder. This seems unlikely. The Lakers, outside of Kobe and MWP, aren't mentally tough enough for the massive challenge ahead of them, and if the first two games get ugly the locker room could start to come unglued. <b>Gloomy But Honest Prediction: Thunder in 4.</b></p>
<p><i>Follow Dex on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dexterfishmore">@dexterfishmore</a>.</i></p>
https://losangeles.sbnation.com/los-angeles-lakers/2012/5/14/3019029/lakers-vs-thunder-nba-playoffs-preview-prediction-kobe-bryant-kevin-durant-james-hardenDexter Fishmore2012-05-12T08:00:31-07:002012-05-12T08:00:31-07:00Lakers Vs. Nuggets Game 7 Preview: If You've Got A Hatch, Batten It Down
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<p>Mike Brown has one shot to pull the Lakers out of their tailspin and maybe save his own job.</p> <p>Laker fans have never really warmed to Mike Brown. It's not totally his fault: he had the misfortune, if that word can describe any situation that pays you more than $4.5 million a year, to succeed the most legendary coach in the sport's history and to have won the job over <span>Brian Shaw</span>, a longtime <span>Phil Jackson</span> assistant deeply respected by Laker fans. Phil and the Shawfather are tough acts to follow, and in all likelihood anyone the front office would've picked to replace them would've spent the past season as the object of fans' grumpiness. The lockout, truncated preseason and crazy regular-season schedule certainly weren't Brown's fault, either. Nor is it his fault that his hiring was the first major personnel decision by prince regent Jim Buss, who doesn't command fanbase trust. Brown stepped into some difficult circumstances when he took the job, and any evaluation of his coaching performance should take it all into account.</p>
<p>But this is Lakerdom, where people want winners, not excuses. And the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/">Lakers</a>' reprehensible showings in Games Five and Six of their first-round series against the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.denverstiffs.com/">Denver Nuggets</a> have seemed to confirm what skeptics feared about Mike Brown: in the crucible of the playoffs he gets easily outmaneuvered by opposing coaches and fails to make the most of elite talent. It doesn't help that he arrived with the reputation of a defensive whiz, yet failed to mold the Lakers' team D into anything better than barely acceptable. In fact, the Laker defense got worse as the season went along and might not be done worsening. The Nuggets' attack ripped off 1.13 points per possession in Game Three. Over the past six quarters, starting at halftime of Game Five, the Nuggets have averaged 1.19 points per trip.</p>
<p><span>Mike Brown's</span> continued employment might depend on his ability to reverse this trend. No one outside of the Buss family and maybe Mitch Kupchak knows whether the team will fire Brown if he loses Game Seven on Saturday night, but it sure feels plausible. Magic Johnson is betting that <a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow/la-sp-ln-la-magic-johnson-mike-brown-will-be-fired-if-lakers-lose-game-7-to-denver-20120511,0,5236483.story">a Laker loss will lead to Brown's termination</a>. Magic no longer owns any part of the team and isn't actively involved in Laker management, but as Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Times points out, he's <a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow/la-sp-ln-la-magic-johnson-mike-brown-will-be-fired-if-lakers-lose-game-7-to-denver-20120511,0,5236483.story">still on the payroll as a vice president</a> and he's close to the Buss family. Magic's warning shot couldn't have helped Brown sleep soundly last night.</p>
<p>He and his staff have several problems to solve if they want to live to see Oklahoma City. Foremost is <span>Andrew Bynum</span>. Over the course of six games he's gone from looking like a guy who could lead you to the title to an unmotivated, floor-bound zombie. Long gone is the Bynum who terrorized the Nugs in Games One and Two. Ever since his overblown but still stupid remarks about the easiness of closeout games, what we've seen instead is a player who's not moving or reacting well on defense nor finishing aggressively with the ball. A major issue is that Bynum has not figured out how to react to the double-teams <span>George Karl</span> is throwing his way.</p>
<p>Fixing one oddball big man would be hard enough, but Brown has another on his hands. <span>Pau Gasol's</span> Game Six (three points on 1-for-10 shooting, three boards) was an endless buffet of suck. The once-beautiful synergy between him and Bynum has evaporated. When the ball goes into Pau on the blocks, it stops. Everything stops. Even against overmatched defenders like <span>Al Harrington</span>, Pau has become inert, seemingly unable to access his inventory of low-post twists and turns. Brown needs to get Pau on the move. Feed him the ball on cuts or slip-screens, and let him rediscover his intuitive playmaking impulse.</p>
<p>On defense as well the Lakers have to change up. <span>Ty Lawson</span> and <span>Andre Miller</span> have been slicing into the lane at will, forcing bad rotations and finding open teammates on the baseline and on dives to the rim. Bynum's issues we've discussed. <span>Ramon Sessions</span> too has put his defensive shortcomings on display and probably can't be relied on to check Lawson or Miller for any significant stretch. As he always does in Game Sevens, <span>Kobe Bryant</span> will surely take on critical defensive responsibilities tonight, as will the unsuspended <span>Metta World Peace</span>. MWP is a great option to stick on Miller, who relies more on strength and positioning than speed or lateral quickness. In Game Six the Lakers had success stripping Miller on the dribble, suggesting Metta, with his peerlessly strong hands, will have a shot at a nice steals total. He'll also spend some time on <span>Danilo Gallinari</span>, who's found his groove lately against <span>Devin Ebanks</span>.</p>
<p>If the Lakers can shore up their point-guard D it should help another increasingly unsexy problem: their three-point defense. Through five games the Nugs mostly failed to knock down the open three-point looks they were given. That changed in Game Sixth, when they made 10 of 20. As elimination-game strategies go, "hoping they miss" won't play, so Brown has to restore floor balance to the D and remind weakside bros not to stray from their marks. Those bad habits were what led to the Lakers' slaughter in Dallas last spring and it's still too soon for anyone to feel nostalgic.</p>
<p>Historically home teams dominate in first-round Game Sevens. It's possible the Lakers will wake up from their fugue state, beat Denver senseless in the first half and drain the drama from the evening. Nobody thinks that'll happen, though. Call it a 20 percent probability the Lakers have completely checked out on the season and get destroyed, 2008 Finals style, and an 80 percent likelihood of a tight, dramatic contest. Fishmore Prediction: Brown and his men have solved <i>just</i> enough of their problems to survive the night (only to fly to their dooms in OKC).</p>
<p><i>Follow Dex on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dexterfishmore">@dexterfishmore</a>.</i></p>
https://losangeles.sbnation.com/los-angeles-lakers/2012/5/12/3015778/lakers-nuggets-game-7-preview-kobe-bryant-mike-brownDexter Fishmore2012-04-29T06:30:08-07:002012-04-29T06:30:08-07:00Lakers Vs. Nuggets Playoff Preview: All Eyes On Andrew Bynum
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<p>All signs point to a long series, but rest, home court and Andrew Bynum tilt the balance of power ever so slightly in the Lakers' favor.</p> <p>There's reason to think the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.denverstiffs.com/">Denver Nuggets</a>, against whom the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/">Lakers</a> open their postseason on Sunday, are a better regular season than playoff team. For one thing, their roster is deep and balanced. That sounds like a good thing and is, but largely because it helps you withstand the drudgery and attrition of <s>an 82-</s> a 66-game season. The postseason brings more days off and more minutes for starters, which blunts the advantages of depth and means that more games are decided by teams' front-line talent. In that respect the Nuggets don't quite measure up to a lot of other teams in the field, including and perhaps especially the top-heavy Lakers. Their best players - point guard <span>Ty Lawson</span> and big men <span>Kenneth Faried</span> and <span>JaVale McGee</span> - are young, gifted and athletic, but they're not (yet) polished superstars on the level of <span>Kobe Bryant</span>, <span>Andrew Bynum</span> and <span>Pau Gasol</span>.</p>
<p>That the Nuggets depend so heavily on "energy and effort" guys also works against them at this time of year. The Farieds and Arron Afflalos of the basketball world, who never take a play off, give you a leg up in the regular season, when so many NBA players half-ass their way through quarters or entire games. In late April, though, everyone gets back on defense and busts ass for that loose ball. We should be careful not to overstate this point - Fareid and Afflalo have skills and IQ to go with their best-in-class motors - but unless the Lakers are completely checked out mentally (always possible), the playoff environment should elicit from them the kind of effort Denver brings to the court almost every night.</p>
<p>In almost every other way you can think of, however, the Nugs are a matchup terror for the purple and gold. Take pace of play. The Denver offense attacks like a bonfire spreads through dry SoCal mountain grass: quickly and with great damage to whatever's in its way. Lawson is a blur on the fast break and will test the Lakers' ever-questionable transition D. The Nuggets have the best transition offense in the league and were third in overall offensive efficiency. Although they're not a good three-point shooting team, they're a good shooting team on the whole, ranking third in effective field-goal percentage. Typical of many <span>George Karl</span> teams, they get to the free-throw line frequently. Fareid, <span>Chris Andersen</span> and McGee are likely to land Bynum and/or Gasol in foul trouble more than once during the series. Nobody in their rotation is an offensive dead spot. Even guys with limited skill sets at that end of floor, like <span>Corey Brewer</span> and <span>Timofey Mozgov</span>, have had stretches of productivity in Karl's system.</p>
<p>Defensively, the Nuggets aren't nearly as fearsome. They ranked just 21st in defensive efficiency, worst of any team still playing. Often their priority is generating turnovers that lead to transition opportunities. Forcing missed shots isn't a strength. George Karl does, at least, have some decent options when it comes to defending Kobe Bryant. Afflalo has the bulk, footwork and discipline to cause problems for the Black Mamba, and as a backup you could do a lot worse than Brewer. It's not clear, however, how the Nuggets can counter the inside scoring power of Bynum. He's had monster performances against Denver this season, and though a couple of them happened before the Nuggets acquired McGee, JaVale doesn't have the bulk to anchor against Drew in the post. Karl will have to decide how often to send a second defender at Drew. He's not a coach that reflexively double-teams just because, but if Bynum is in destroyer mode he won't have a choice.</p>
<p>Looking just at their regular-season performances against the Lakers, you'd have no idea the Nuggets were so offensively tilted. Across four games between the two teams, Denver averaged just 0.99 points per possession (regular-season average = 1.09) but they surrendered a stellar 1.01 points per trip (regular-season average for the Lakers' offense = 1.06). Three of those games happened before Valentine's Day, so the track record probably doesn't mean much. It's unlikely the Nuggets will be so easy to slow down in this series, or that they'll have as much success slowing down the Lakers. Expect a mix of high- and low-scoring games. "Controlling the pace" is a phrase you'll hear a great deal.</p>
<p>Both teams have health issues. For the Nugs, <span>Wilson Chandler</span> and <span>Rudy Fernandez</span> are out and <span>Al Harrington</span>, recently diagnosed with a meniscus tear in his knee, is questionable for Game One. On the Lakers' side of the ledger, <span>Matt Barnes</span> has a moderately sprained ankle. Of course, the most significant absentee will be <span>Metta World Peace</span>, who would've been a load for Denver to handle. Physically he could've been counted on to overpower Danilo Galinari on both ends of the court. Instead, thanks to Metta's attempt to collapse <span>James Harden's</span> windpipe, it'll be up to either the injured Barnes or <span>Devin Ebanks</span> to check the dangerous Italian. MWP will make an appearance only if the series goes the full seven.</p>
<p>Where the Lakers do have a clear advantage is in terms of rest. They haven't played a competitive game since last Sunday, as Thursday night in Sacramento was a scrubs-only scrimmage. Denver had a road back-to-back on Wednesday and Thursday and had to play their starters both nights in an effort to preserve playoff seeding. A classic NBA adage holds that an underdog's best chance to steal home-court advantage is in Game One, but that's probably not the case here. The Lakers will take the court on Sunday with by far the fresher set of legs.</p>
<p>Most variables suggest we're in store for a long series. With World Peace sidelined, the overall talent level is about the same between these two teams. All four of their regular season contests were close. Had the Laker front office not pulled off the <span>Ramon Sessions</span> trade at midseason, the Nuggets would be the clear favorites. But with Sessions on board to even things out at the point-guard position, the Lakers should ultimately advance behind a huge series from Andrew Bynum. <b>Prediction: Lakers in 7.</b></p>
<p><i>Follow Dex on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dexterfishmore">@dexterfishmore</a>. Stats in this piece are courtesy of the awesome <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012.html">Basketball Reference</a>.</i></p>
https://losangeles.sbnation.com/los-angeles-lakers/2012/4/29/2985696/lakers-nuggets-playoff-preview-prediction-kobe-bryant-andrew-bynum-pau-gasol-kenneth-fareidDexter Fishmore