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Clippers Vs. Spurs, NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Do The Clippers Stand A Chance?

2012-05-15T13:52:37Z

The Conference Semifinals open Tuesday night with the Clippers facing the Spurs in San Antonio. The Clippers are exhausted and beat up, the Spurs are well-rested and healthy. Do the Clippers even stand a chance? They do as long as they have Chris Paul.

The Los Angeles Clippers won Game 7 in Memphis to defeat the Memphis Grizzlies in a riveting and grueling first round series. Their reward? A trip straight to Texas to face the red-hot and rested San Antonio Spurs. The Clippers defied the predictions of many in beating Memphis, and certainly defied the odds by winning Game 7 on the road, but now they come up against the mighty Spurs. Do they even stand a chance?

The odds seem stacked against them. Consider:

The Spurs have not played in eight days after sweeping their first round series with Utah. The Clippers played Sunday in a very physical Game 7 and will be playing their sixth game in 11 days.
The Spurs are as healthy as they've been all season. The Clippers are dealing with injuries to three starters -- Caron Butler playing with a broken hand, Chris Paul dealing with a strained hip flexor, and Blake Griffin battling a sprained knee. Of the three injuries, Griffin's is the biggest concern heading into Game 1, though he insists he'll play.
The Spurs are the hottest team in basketball. They won 21 of 23 to finish the regular season, and are riding a 14 game winning streak including the playoffs. The Clippers closed the season strong as well -- but that's ridiculous.

And that is to say nothing of the history of the teams.The Spurs have won four NBA titles and been to the playoffs 24 times in the last 27 seasons. The Clippers have never gotten beyond the second round, and have had a losing regular season record 23 times in the past 27 years. The worst winning percentage in the 15 full seasons Gregg Popovich has coached the Spurs is .610 -- better than the best winning percentage in Clippers' franchise history (this season's .606).

Their head to head history is even more lopsided, if that's possible. The Spurs are 84-22 against the Clippers since 1985-1986. During the Popovich era, it's worse still -- the Spurs are 48-7 against the LAC since the current San Antonio coach's first training camp in 1997.

And then there's the Clippers record in San Antonio, where the series opens. The Clippers are 8-46 in the Alamo City since 1985 -- they are 2-28 against Popovich-led teams. Most disconcerting of all, they are 1-17 all time in the current home of the Spurs, the AT&T Center where the series opens Tuesday.

But you know what? They were 0-17 until March when they finally broke through and got the win, so when you think about it, they've got a winning streak going in San Antonio right now. Jokes aside, the pathetic past of the Clippers doesn't really matter that much any more, because none of those teams had what this team has.

The Clippers have a chance in this series for one reason: Chris Paul. He was the best player in their first round series and they won for that reason. There's every reason to believe that he'll be the best player in this series as well.

The strange thing about the Spurs is that if you ignore the win-loss record and just look at the roster, they seem much less intimidating. Sure, there's the legendary big three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. But beyond those guys, the rest of the roster looks underwhelming (though we know they don't play that way). Aside from Duncan, the bigs of Boris Diaw, Tiago Splitter, Matt Bonner and DeJuan Blair, are all limited in one way or another. Let's face it, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are a more formidable duo than any two bigs the Spurs can put on the floor. Stephen Jackson was a nice late season acquisition, but he's been an inefficient scorer his whole career. They can put shooters on the floor, that's for sure, but on paper, the team does not look unstoppable by any means.

Of course, the games aren't played on paper, they're played on hardwood, and out there the Spurs are tough to stop. They execute their offense better than any team in the league. Their floor spacing is always perfect, the ball and man movement is unmatched, and Parker is almost impossible to stop in the pick and roll. Gregg Popovich won the Coach of the Year award and is legitimately the best coach in the NBA for one simple reason -- everyone in a Spurs uniform is completely bought in to the system. If they weren't, they wouldn't be there.

But the Clippers have reason to have some confidence heading into San Antonio. For one thing, they do have that road win under their belt at this point (although that March game was a bit of an outlier -- Parker didn't play and the Clippers shot the lights out, with Mo Williams hitting 7-9 from three point range). Three weeks prior to that March meeting, the Clippers had the Spurs beaten, up by three in the final seconds of a game in STAPLES Center. At that point, an inbounds play went horribly wrong, Paul threw the ball to Gary Neal behind the three point arc, he tied the game, and the Spurs wound up winning in overtime. So the Clippers are one inbounds pass away from having won the season series against the Spurs. On the regular season at least, the Clippers competed with San Antonio very effectively.

To win the series, the Clippers will have to win at least one game in the Alamo City, but winning Game 1 would take a miracle. The Clippers are too tired and too hurt, the Spurs are too rested. The odds may be better as the series wears on. The Clippers best players are younger than the Spurs best players, and with back-to-back games this weekend, L.A. may pick up a slight advantage in the second week of the series, when fatigue becomes an issue for both teams.

Then again, the Clippers pulled off a miracle by winning Game 1 in Memphis, coming back from 24 points down in the final eight minutes. Maybe they've got another Game 1 miracle in them. With Chris Paul, anything is possible.

Lakers Vs. Thunder, NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Stormy Weather Ahead

2012-05-14T12:30:23Z

All signs point to a decisive Thunder victory. Can the Lakers thrive in their underdog role?

For the first time since they traded for Pau Gasol in February 2008, the Lakers are underdogs in a playoff series. It's easy to see why. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who host the Lakers tonight in Game One of their second-round matchup, were the stronger squad by far in the regular season, won two of the teams' three head-to-head regular-season contests and hold home-court advantage. They've been resting and healing for nine days since tying a ribbon around their first-round sweep of the Dallas Mavericks on May 5. At Chesapeake Energy Arena the Thunder were a superb 26-7 this season, while the Lakers lost more than half their games on the road. The Thunder have the better coach, less mercurial top-line talent and enough accumulated playoff experience to put to rest any concerns about their youth. It's very possible that four games from now we Laker fans will wish our team had bowed out quietly against the Nuggets and spared us the weeklong humiliation that may lie in store.

When the Lakers last met OKC in the playoffs, back in the first round in 2010, the Thunder were rising upstarts who won primarily with stellar defense. Their identity has shifted since then. They've become an offensive powerhouse, finishing the regular season second in the NBA in offensive efficiency, thanks to the maturation of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and the emergence of shooting guard James Harden as a lethal third option. They're still fairly strong on D, ranking 10th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. In the paint Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison make life painful and easy baskets rare for opponents. No longer, though, do we wonder how OKC can keep up with the best offensive teams in the league. They're one of them, and if Mike Brown is ever going to weave the defensive magic he was brought in to produce, now would be a great time.

The challenges start at the point-guard position. You know how in the first round Ty Lawson blitzed the Laker D with incredible speed to the rim, making Ramon Sessions and Steve Blake appear to be nailed to the floor? Westbrook is a bigger and stronger but just-as-fast version of Lawson. He'll help the Lakers out with one or two awful shooting nights, but keeping him out of the lane consistently will be next to impossible. Sessions, for all the nice things he does for the Laker attack, is an average defender at best and can't handle Westbrook one on one. At times Kobe Bryant will check him, but Kobe can't expend max energy on D since his scoring is so critical. At times Metta World Peace will give Westbrook a different look, but he'll be needed on Durant detail. Maybe Devin Ebanks can take Westbrook for short stretches, but he looked overwhelmed against Denver. You see the problem here. And it only gets worse when Harden's in the game and there are three elite perimeter scorers to worry about.

Of the OKC stars it's Durant, the newly crowned scoring champion, who presents the least reason for concern in this series. That's because MWP is one of the few guys in the league who can trouble KD one on one. Metta knows how to make Durant uncomfortable - body him up, knock him down on occasion, swipe at the ball when it's brought low - and he knows this is his moment. MWP was put on the earth to guard guys like Durant, and his seven-game suspension is now kind of a good thing since it kept his legs fresh for the task.

At the team level, keep an eye on the Thunder's turnovers and free-throw attempts. They were the most turnover-prone team in the NBA this year, but the Lakers were easily the worst team when it came to forcing turnovers, so this is weakness-on-weakness. Whether OKC can get to the line is a matter of strength-on-strength. The Thunder were the best at generating (and making) free-throw attempts, while the Laker D was the best at preventing them.

When the Lakers have the ball they'll have to score more effectively than they did against OKC in the regular season. Across three games they averaged just 1.02 points per possession, well below their season average. They've had particular trouble generating points inside. Although none of the Thunder big men are as large as Andrew Bynum, they're all tough and talented. Perkins and Collison have good strength and know how to keep guys like Bynum from receiving the ball in his preferred spot. Ibaka is the league's best shot-blocker by a huge margin. Neither they nor OKC as a team, however, excels on the defensive glass. The Lakers are a strong offensive-rebounding team and punished Denver in that respect in the first round. They'll need a ton of second-chance points in this series since their shooting numbers will be poor to disastrous.

They'll also need Kobe to score often and efficiently, which he couldn't do in the three regular-season matchups. He averaged over 24 a game against OKC but shot horrendously, missing more than two-thirds of his attempts. Obviously if that trend doesn't reverse itself, the Lakers have no hope of advancing.

In so many ways, this feels like the end of the road for the Lake Show. Against the Nuggets they got away with their trademark flakiness, but just barely. Nothing in their track record suggests they're ready to buckle down for a best-of-seven siege of a rising superpower. Game One could be especially grim. The OKC crowd will be rabid and the Lakers will still be recovering from the drama of their first-round Game Seven. Maybe they can spring an upset in Game Two, but their best bet is to take Games Three and Four back at Staples and hope the gathering pressure starts to affect the young Thunder. This seems unlikely. The Lakers, outside of Kobe and MWP, aren't mentally tough enough for the massive challenge ahead of them, and if the first two games get ugly the locker room could start to come unglued. Gloomy But Honest Prediction: Thunder in 4.

Follow Dex on Twitter @dexterfishmore.

Lakers Vs. Nuggets Game 7 Preview: If You've Got A Hatch, Batten It Down

2012-05-12T15:00:31Z

Mike Brown has one shot to pull the Lakers out of their tailspin and maybe save his own job.

Laker fans have never really warmed to Mike Brown. It's not totally his fault: he had the misfortune, if that word can describe any situation that pays you more than $4.5 million a year, to succeed the most legendary coach in the sport's history and to have won the job over Brian Shaw, a longtime Phil Jackson assistant deeply respected by Laker fans. Phil and the Shawfather are tough acts to follow, and in all likelihood anyone the front office would've picked to replace them would've spent the past season as the object of fans' grumpiness. The lockout, truncated preseason and crazy regular-season schedule certainly weren't Brown's fault, either. Nor is it his fault that his hiring was the first major personnel decision by prince regent Jim Buss, who doesn't command fanbase trust. Brown stepped into some difficult circumstances when he took the job, and any evaluation of his coaching performance should take it all into account.

But this is Lakerdom, where people want winners, not excuses. And the Lakers' reprehensible showings in Games Five and Six of their first-round series against the Denver Nuggets have seemed to confirm what skeptics feared about Mike Brown: in the crucible of the playoffs he gets easily outmaneuvered by opposing coaches and fails to make the most of elite talent. It doesn't help that he arrived with the reputation of a defensive whiz, yet failed to mold the Lakers' team D into anything better than barely acceptable. In fact, the Laker defense got worse as the season went along and might not be done worsening. The Nuggets' attack ripped off 1.13 points per possession in Game Three. Over the past six quarters, starting at halftime of Game Five, the Nuggets have averaged 1.19 points per trip.

Mike Brown's continued employment might depend on his ability to reverse this trend. No one outside of the Buss family and maybe Mitch Kupchak knows whether the team will fire Brown if he loses Game Seven on Saturday night, but it sure feels plausible. Magic Johnson is betting that a Laker loss will lead to Brown's termination. Magic no longer owns any part of the team and isn't actively involved in Laker management, but as Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Times points out, he's still on the payroll as a vice president and he's close to the Buss family. Magic's warning shot couldn't have helped Brown sleep soundly last night.

He and his staff have several problems to solve if they want to live to see Oklahoma City. Foremost is Andrew Bynum. Over the course of six games he's gone from looking like a guy who could lead you to the title to an unmotivated, floor-bound zombie. Long gone is the Bynum who terrorized the Nugs in Games One and Two. Ever since his overblown but still stupid remarks about the easiness of closeout games, what we've seen instead is a player who's not moving or reacting well on defense nor finishing aggressively with the ball. A major issue is that Bynum has not figured out how to react to the double-teams George Karl is throwing his way.

Fixing one oddball big man would be hard enough, but Brown has another on his hands. Pau Gasol's Game Six (three points on 1-for-10 shooting, three boards) was an endless buffet of suck. The once-beautiful synergy between him and Bynum has evaporated. When the ball goes into Pau on the blocks, it stops. Everything stops. Even against overmatched defenders like Al Harrington, Pau has become inert, seemingly unable to access his inventory of low-post twists and turns. Brown needs to get Pau on the move. Feed him the ball on cuts or slip-screens, and let him rediscover his intuitive playmaking impulse.

On defense as well the Lakers have to change up. Ty Lawson and Andre Miller have been slicing into the lane at will, forcing bad rotations and finding open teammates on the baseline and on dives to the rim. Bynum's issues we've discussed. Ramon Sessions too has put his defensive shortcomings on display and probably can't be relied on to check Lawson or Miller for any significant stretch. As he always does in Game Sevens, Kobe Bryant will surely take on critical defensive responsibilities tonight, as will the unsuspended Metta World Peace. MWP is a great option to stick on Miller, who relies more on strength and positioning than speed or lateral quickness. In Game Six the Lakers had success stripping Miller on the dribble, suggesting Metta, with his peerlessly strong hands, will have a shot at a nice steals total. He'll also spend some time on Danilo Gallinari, who's found his groove lately against Devin Ebanks.

If the Lakers can shore up their point-guard D it should help another increasingly unsexy problem: their three-point defense. Through five games the Nugs mostly failed to knock down the open three-point looks they were given. That changed in Game Sixth, when they made 10 of 20. As elimination-game strategies go, "hoping they miss" won't play, so Brown has to restore floor balance to the D and remind weakside bros not to stray from their marks. Those bad habits were what led to the Lakers' slaughter in Dallas last spring and it's still too soon for anyone to feel nostalgic.

Historically home teams dominate in first-round Game Sevens. It's possible the Lakers will wake up from their fugue state, beat Denver senseless in the first half and drain the drama from the evening. Nobody thinks that'll happen, though. Call it a 20 percent probability the Lakers have completely checked out on the season and get destroyed, 2008 Finals style, and an 80 percent likelihood of a tight, dramatic contest. Fishmore Prediction: Brown and his men have solved just enough of their problems to survive the night (only to fly to their dooms in OKC).

Follow Dex on Twitter @dexterfishmore.

Lakers Vs. Nuggets, NBA Playoffs: Andrew Bynum Continues Maturation Process

2012-05-02T16:13:43Z

Bynum averaged 18.5 points, 11 rebounds, and six blocks in the first two games against Denver.

There comes a time when things really change, when people really mature and that time is finally here. It's Andrew Bynum I'm referring to, the seven-foot center everyone will have their eyes on this postseason, all while the Los Angeles Lakers are pursuing a championship. It's not over, folks. It's just getting started, and already Bynum is a fundamental piece at center court under the lights in Staples Center, where he has put on a show lately, drawing much attention with his recent progress.

If Bynum is healthy and pushes around the Denver Nuggets under the basket, like he did in Game 1 with 10 points, 13 rebounds and 10 blocks for a triple-double, or in Game 2 with a career playoff high 27 points, then every team should beware of the oversized giant who resides in Hollywood. Bynum is the Lakers right now, even if his teammate, Kobe Bryant, is the superstar, best finisher and greatest clutch performer of all time in the city of entertainment. For so long we've sensed that he was a teenybopper and could've easily mistaken him for one -- not a matured player at the age 24 -- with his acts of childish nonsense and defiance that normally emanated from emotions he released during intense, dire moments in the game.

So now, in the aftermath of the first two games against Denver, we have second thoughts about Bynum. Game 1 was probably the most impressive performance from Bynum, a well-rounded game by a player who has size, stamina and seriousness, knowing he's the dynamic force necessary to dominate in the Lakers' favor, a team hungry for a second championship in three years. This wasn't the type of game that he rashly attempted shots well out of his range or one of those games where he was benched by head coach Mike Brown. It was a breakthrough game, creating plenty of conversation following a game that he contested shots, disrupted penetration to the basket and controlled the tempo.

He is surely the player to watch for this postseason and, in truth, finally played like an all star in a playoff game, catching our eyes with an NBA tying-record 10 blocks, a plateau that won't be touched this postseason. It's not a team that comprise of much depth, but with the presence of Bynum, who is freakishly a monster in the post, muscular and can patrol the paint by denying nearly every shot attempt and corralling rebounds with authority, the Lakers can be unstoppable. Staying focused and possessed, Bynum seems as if he's on his best behavior, aggressively earning his job title as one of the most dominant centers in the league if not the most dominant, now that an unhappy Dwight Howard is out for the postseason after having season-ending back surgery.

It's really a good thing the Lakers never traded Bynum, dating back to when he was considered on the trading block for Howard earlier in the regular season, and instead Jim Buss decided to keep him in the lineup to contribute for the Lakers this postseason -- on a mission to win a 17th championship. Indeed Nuggets center JaVale McGee, 24, is no match for Bynum, now unfazed by criticism as he moves into the company of Hakeem Olajuwon and Mark Eaton, tying a playoff record of 10 blocks -- surpassing all-time Lakers great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's franchise record of nine.

Bynum's effort is what Brown expected out of him earlier in the season. All of a sudden, Bynum pleased his coach by committing to Brown's coaching style. As Brown constantly emphasizes defensive effort, Bynum past his real test and the Lakers won Game 1 defensively, holding the league's highest-scoring team to 88 points. Brown has a chance, despite his bizarre coaching and taking so much criticism for half of the season, to preach and put a strong emphasis on defense with his ability to install trust and communication among his players. If Bynum continues to block every shot attempt and collect every rebound, again, watch out. The Lakers can indeed win a championship at this rate. It's the playoffs now, a whole different mentality. And Bynum's mindset is there. From the beginning to the end, he was the most important player on the floor, maybe even more of a megastar than Bryant. At game's end, he registered a triple-double, the first of his seven-year career, and over on the bench Kobe sat relieved and wore a smile. The last Lakers' player to post a triple-double was Magic Johnson, who captured the feat against the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 of the 1991 NBA Finals. That does not mean Bryant will be absent for the rest of this series, but he's never had a triple-double in an amazing NBA career.

He was clearly the best, though it is likely Denver point guard Ty Lawson will bounce back from an inferior performance. But here were the Lakers, keeping one of their best players from getting to the basket easily. The point is the Lakers were prepared, realizing the Nuggets score much of their points on layups but this time Bynum denied them under the basket. It does seem likely that the Lakers have a chance to win the championship. Bynum is a bully, a pesky seven-footer with size of a bodybuilder and the knack of an athletic center.

It makes sense to go out on the ledge and say the Lakers are absolutely a championship-driven team. There is a bona fide tandem in Los Angeles, as it turns out with the likes of Bynum and Bryant, who scored 30 points, despite a slow start in a quiet matinee. The emergence of Devin Ebanks, the replacement for the suspended Metta World Peace, was scorching early on and had 12 points and 5 rebounds. And then, Jordan Hill, who scored 10 points and had 10 rebounds off the bench, gets involved by grabbing rebounds that give the Lakers second-change opportunities. He can dance in the paint, leap for the ball and outrebound opponents.

With hopes that Bynum is real, becoming disruptive on defense and the second-scoring option to Bryant, he can be a nightmare for many. It's almost impossible to stop him when he's on his game, a versatile defender who changed the complexion in Sunday's game and then excelled on the offensive end Tuesday night.

If the Lakers win and erase an embarrassing loss after Dallas swept them in the second round of the playoffs last season, don't forget to thank Bynum.

For more news and notes on Lakers basketball, be sure to read Silver Screen and Roll.

Dr. Crazy Light, Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Write About a Basketball Shoe

2012-04-30T20:05:28Z

Adidas took a whole bunch of fashion and sports reporters, gave them their new basketball shoe the Crazy Light II, and said to go crazy at the LA Clipper facility. This is what happened.

Hi, resident LA Galaxy and Chivas USA writer here. When adidas contacted me to try out their new Crazy Light II at the Clipper practice facility, I'll admit I was skeptical. I hadn't played basketball since grade school, I'm a soccer girl through and through. Still, it was intriguing enough that I had to go see what all the fuss over this adidas Crazy Light II was about.

Many moving pieces had to fit together to make this moment. From the Clippers point of view, they had to finally build a practice facility. For much of their history, the Los Angels Clippers have been content to pick up the Los Angeles Lakers' sloppy seconds. The Lakers move out of the Sports Arena, the Clippers move in a decade later. For a good chunk of their history, the Clippers practice at Veterans Park in Carson while the Lakers practiced at LA Southwest College.

These were remnants of the old NBA, which became cool under Magic and Bird and Jordan, but for whom expansion was still problematic (see Grizzlies, Hornets) and teams were still tenants and not home owners. When AEG took the Kings and Lakers under the same roof and built a state of the art practice facility in El Segundo, the Clippers were happy to take over at LA Southwest College.

This was the new NBA, where free agents were wooed. The Clippers once again followed the Lakers, moving in to Staples Center. In 2005 the Clippers staked a claim in this new NBA, building a $50 million facility in West LA.

It's really quite something. There are two courts in the facility, one a replica of the one at Staples Center. The locker room is specious and comfortable, there's a players lounge, and a theater to watch film; large gym complete with pool.

One year later, adidas received the exclusive NBA contract about the same time they got MLS as well. Which is where I come in. In the case of the NBA, the new 11 year contract signed in 2006 was a result of adidas buying Reebok which had been the official outfitter of the NBA. Adidas and hip hop culture (which of course includes basketball) have been intertwined since the days of Run DMC.

Derrick Rose is adidas' big NBA star. To make a Clipper connection, Chauncey Billups is an adidas man. With these adidas Crazy Light II's, they went in a different direction. They needed young and fresh. Who's younger and fresher than college kids?

Look at the lead photo, and check out that one of Louisville. These were no mere coincidence. Adidas outfitted Baylor and Louisville in the tournament with their new Crazy Light II. They were also given jerseys and socks in neon versions of their respective school colors to tie in to the shoe. They were given a black version with neon laces. We got to test out the full neon.

I had just come off the court, crazy tired, so you're not gonna see the full version of this photo; anyhow this is about the shoes not me. They are the lightest basketball shoe ever produced at 9.5 ounces, and you can see I'm wearing the same socks Baylor were given.

The shoe also has a structural element to it called the SprintFrame and SpritWeb which give it much less give than what I remember basketball shoes feeling like. It reminded me more of my soccer cleats, where once you're in the shoe you are in. This means a feeling of tightness before you get going, but once you are playing in them it feels like wearing nothing at all.

Those are my two biggest takeaways. The colors definitely appealed to the other writers at the event, and I think they'll appeal to the youth market adidas is going after here. I tend to be a more muted traditionalist, give me a pair of adidas Originals and I'll wear them everywhere, so I'll stay away from the aesthetics.

However playing with them, once I found the right balance of hydration and protein that I didn't feel like I was going to pass out anymore, I felt like I could do no wrong. I was throwing up reverse layups from outside the paint, jumpers from just inside the arc, and my feet felt light as a feather.

The shoe is micoach compatable, which brings up another point. It's hard not to feel, with neon colors and micoaches, that adidas is a follower in this market and not the leader. Certainly micoach didn't come preloaded on my iPhone.

The question then becomes, are they doing it better. Certainly lighter and faster seems to be adidas' calling card these days. Will we see Chauncey Billups rocking Crazy Lights next year? Maybe. But I'm certain we'll see them around LA High schools as soon as they drop in late May.

Lakers Vs. Nuggets Playoff Preview: All Eyes On Andrew Bynum

2012-04-29T13:30:08Z

All signs point to a long series, but rest, home court and Andrew Bynum tilt the balance of power ever so slightly in the Lakers' favor.

There's reason to think the Denver Nuggets, against whom the Lakers open their postseason on Sunday, are a better regular season than playoff team. For one thing, their roster is deep and balanced. That sounds like a good thing and is, but largely because it helps you withstand the drudgery and attrition of ~~an 82-~~ a 66-game season. The postseason brings more days off and more minutes for starters, which blunts the advantages of depth and means that more games are decided by teams' front-line talent. In that respect the Nuggets don't quite measure up to a lot of other teams in the field, including and perhaps especially the top-heavy Lakers. Their best players - point guard Ty Lawson and big men Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee - are young, gifted and athletic, but they're not (yet) polished superstars on the level of Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.

That the Nuggets depend so heavily on "energy and effort" guys also works against them at this time of year. The Farieds and Arron Afflalos of the basketball world, who never take a play off, give you a leg up in the regular season, when so many NBA players half-ass their way through quarters or entire games. In late April, though, everyone gets back on defense and busts ass for that loose ball. We should be careful not to overstate this point - Fareid and Afflalo have skills and IQ to go with their best-in-class motors - but unless the Lakers are completely checked out mentally (always possible), the playoff environment should elicit from them the kind of effort Denver brings to the court almost every night.

In almost every other way you can think of, however, the Nugs are a matchup terror for the purple and gold. Take pace of play. The Denver offense attacks like a bonfire spreads through dry SoCal mountain grass: quickly and with great damage to whatever's in its way. Lawson is a blur on the fast break and will test the Lakers' ever-questionable transition D. The Nuggets have the best transition offense in the league and were third in overall offensive efficiency. Although they're not a good three-point shooting team, they're a good shooting team on the whole, ranking third in effective field-goal percentage. Typical of many George Karl teams, they get to the free-throw line frequently. Fareid, Chris Andersen and McGee are likely to land Bynum and/or Gasol in foul trouble more than once during the series. Nobody in their rotation is an offensive dead spot. Even guys with limited skill sets at that end of floor, like Corey Brewer and Timofey Mozgov, have had stretches of productivity in Karl's system.

Defensively, the Nuggets aren't nearly as fearsome. They ranked just 21st in defensive efficiency, worst of any team still playing. Often their priority is generating turnovers that lead to transition opportunities. Forcing missed shots isn't a strength. George Karl does, at least, have some decent options when it comes to defending Kobe Bryant. Afflalo has the bulk, footwork and discipline to cause problems for the Black Mamba, and as a backup you could do a lot worse than Brewer. It's not clear, however, how the Nuggets can counter the inside scoring power of Bynum. He's had monster performances against Denver this season, and though a couple of them happened before the Nuggets acquired McGee, JaVale doesn't have the bulk to anchor against Drew in the post. Karl will have to decide how often to send a second defender at Drew. He's not a coach that reflexively double-teams just because, but if Bynum is in destroyer mode he won't have a choice.

Looking just at their regular-season performances against the Lakers, you'd have no idea the Nuggets were so offensively tilted. Across four games between the two teams, Denver averaged just 0.99 points per possession (regular-season average = 1.09) but they surrendered a stellar 1.01 points per trip (regular-season average for the Lakers' offense = 1.06). Three of those games happened before Valentine's Day, so the track record probably doesn't mean much. It's unlikely the Nuggets will be so easy to slow down in this series, or that they'll have as much success slowing down the Lakers. Expect a mix of high- and low-scoring games. "Controlling the pace" is a phrase you'll hear a great deal.

Both teams have health issues. For the Nugs, Wilson Chandler and Rudy Fernandez are out and Al Harrington, recently diagnosed with a meniscus tear in his knee, is questionable for Game One. On the Lakers' side of the ledger, Matt Barnes has a moderately sprained ankle. Of course, the most significant absentee will be Metta World Peace, who would've been a load for Denver to handle. Physically he could've been counted on to overpower Danilo Galinari on both ends of the court. Instead, thanks to Metta's attempt to collapse James Harden's windpipe, it'll be up to either the injured Barnes or Devin Ebanks to check the dangerous Italian. MWP will make an appearance only if the series goes the full seven.

Where the Lakers do have a clear advantage is in terms of rest. They haven't played a competitive game since last Sunday, as Thursday night in Sacramento was a scrubs-only scrimmage. Denver had a road back-to-back on Wednesday and Thursday and had to play their starters both nights in an effort to preserve playoff seeding. A classic NBA adage holds that an underdog's best chance to steal home-court advantage is in Game One, but that's probably not the case here. The Lakers will take the court on Sunday with by far the fresher set of legs.

Most variables suggest we're in store for a long series. With World Peace sidelined, the overall talent level is about the same between these two teams. All four of their regular season contests were close. Had the Laker front office not pulled off the Ramon Sessions trade at midseason, the Nuggets would be the clear favorites. But with Sessions on board to even things out at the point-guard position, the Lakers should ultimately advance behind a huge series from Andrew Bynum. Prediction: Lakers in 7.

Follow Dex on Twitter @dexterfishmore. Stats in this piece are courtesy of the awesome Basketball Reference.

Blake Griffin And Hard Fouls

2012-04-27T12:52:45Z

The league has a problem on it's hands with the number of hard fouls being committed and it's only going to get worse during the playoffs.

Blake Griffin has been the victim of countless hard fouls this season, including two category two Flagrant Fouls in the final month of the season. And as the playoffs begin this weekend, things could really get intense for the Clippers and their All-Star forward.

This is nothing new. In fact, I wrote about it in this space over a year ago. It is a complex issue and defies easy answers. It's not nearly as simple as Charles Barkley would have us believe.

Sir Charles' position that the Clippers need a Rick Mahorn to protect Griffin by handing out some punishment of his own is dead wrong. Mahorn is a product of another era, and was a pretty unappealing part of that era to boot. He was part of a trend that was ruining basketball. A vote for a goon squad in Clippers red-white-and-blue is a vote for ugly and unappealing basketball. I can't vote for that.

I understand that waiting for a better solution, waiting for the league to fix this problem, is going to be a long wait. So it may seem as if the only short term option is to lay some guys out. But that doesn't solve the problem by any means -- it just escalates it. I like to quote Broadway musicals whenever possible, and in the words of Tevye, the Old Testament Law of an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth leaves the world blind and toothless.

It's important to take a step back and try to decipher what the league's goals are in this situation. The first goal is that no one should get hurt. There's little question that the trend is disquieting as far as this goal is concerned -- just ask James Harden. Griffin was laid out twice in less than four weeks, and Barkley isn't the only one openly calling for his teammates to do something. This is not code people. Do something means hurt someone. The chorus of people calling for the Clippers to protect Griffin has the very real possibility of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, and it has the disturbing qualities of playground name calling. "If you don't fight then you're chicken." "I'm not chicken, I'll show you." With all the talk going on would it have been a surprise had someone on the Clippers actually injured Jason Smith when he came to STAPLES Center a couple days after the Lopez foul and a month after Smith himself had body checked Griffin? Happily, aside from some low level chippiness, the Clippers-Hornets game passed without incident (though Hornets coach Monty Williams did bizarrely decide to call Blake Griffin out for no apparent reason in his post-game comments).

The question of intent is irrelevant. If you do something you know is dangerous and someone gets hurt, it doesn't matter whether your intent was to injure. Besides, how do you determine intent? Moving from Tevye to Yoda, "Do or do not. There is no try."

If the goal is that players should not get hurt, then my biggest problem with what is happening right now is that the NBA has failed at disincenting teams from pulling this stuff. For some reason, Blake has been turned into a WWE villain, and playing in front of their home crowds, players are heroes for taking on the villain. It may make good spectacle, but it's clearly not in the long term interests of the league, and they need to recognize that.

Taking three recent Blake-centered incidents, my biggest issue is not with the foul itself, but with the peripheral events.

Against Denver when Timofey Mozgov fouled Griffin hard, we learned later in a giddy Nuggets locker room that it was all premeditated. Andre Miller told Mozgov to put Griffin on his ass, he did it, and the Nuggets celebrated their strategic success. In New Orleans, after Smith body checked Griffin in the open court, he openly egged on the crowd (again as if we were at Wrestlemania) and high-fived fans as he left the arena. In Phoenix, the clueless officiating crew handed out a technical foul for an inevitable and frankly pretty calm reaction from Mo Williams, thus removing any direct penalty from Lopez' ridiculous foul. And what is the worst part of these three incidents? The fact that they worked, as the Clippers lost all three games. This is becoming the book on beating the Clippers. Hit them, bloody their nose, and you can beat them.

This cannot possibly be a message the NBA wants to send, but that's what is happening.

We need to realize something here -- just because a strategy might help you win games, doesn't make it right. David Stern tends toward the Machiavellian to be certain, but the ends cannot justify the means in what is supposed to be a competitive sport. You could almost certainly win games by sending rabid fans wielding tire irons to Gillooly the knees of your opposition's stars, and you could probably find fans stupid enough to accept the consequences of those actions. It doesn't make it right. And on an NBA bench that goes 13 deep, there are some players that aren't that far removed from a Gillooly. If the NBA allows these tactics to work, the tactics will become more frequent and more extreme. We're currently witnessing that escalation.

One issue is that the punishments currently available to the league are by and large ex post facto -- fines and suspensions may hurt the offender and the team in the long term, but they don't have any impact on the game in which the foul occurs. In the case of a 13th man committing the foul, the most extreme and vicious Flagrant Foul category 2 is no different than a clear path foul -- two free throws and the ball out of bounds. And that's clearly disproportionate. In the case of Metta World Peace's elbow to James Harden's head, two free throw's and MWP's ejection was certainly not as costly for the Lakers as losing Harden was for the Thunder. It's hard to imagine that the Lakers would have mounted the comeback they did if Harden had been available down the stretch.

In the case of Lopez, the league didn't even issue a suspension after his foul on Griffin. The net effect of the calls associated with that play was essentially no different than if Lopez had been whistled for a common non-shooting foul. Griffin, a 52 percent foul shooter, was given two free throws, while Mo Williams' inevitable technical foul resulted in one free throw for a good foul shooter for the Suns. Predictably, each team made a free throw and the Clippers inbounded the ball with the margin unchanged. Nor was Lopez' ejection a loss, as starting center Marcin Gortat was literally already at the scorer's table waiting to enter the game when the foul occurred.

Griffin is a hard foul magnet and is frankly a unique case in the league right now. He is a great finisher around the rim, and tends to put nearby opponents on his posters. Bearing in mind that he's a 52 percent foul shooter, making him earn two points at the line rather than getting an automatic two only makes good basketball sense. But he's strong, and you have to make sure that he's not going to wind up with three points on an and-one, so you have to foul him hard. It follows that hard, intentional fouls would occasionally cross the line into dangerous territory, particularly when we know for a fact that the strategy of at least one team is to "put Griffin on his behind".

The league has a problem on its hands, and it's only going to get worse during the playoffs. At least in the playoffs, subsequent punishments issued by the league do have the potential to benefit the team of the victim, assuming the series is not yet concluded. One way or the other, the league has to increase the disincentives associated with Flagrant Fouls. Two free throws and the ball, the same penalty as on a clear path foul, is clearly not enough -- not when the player fouled is a bad free throw shooter and the player being ejected could conceivably be the 13th man put into the game specifically to commit a hard foul. One obvious option would be to allow the team's best foul shooter to shoot free throws as with technical fouls. Another would be to disqualify from the game not just the player who commits the flagrant foul, but also another player of the fouled team's choice. That would be a true disincentive.

Griffin of course can take the target off his back himself, or at least reduce it in size, by becoming a better free throw shooter. When it gets to the point where he's more likely than not to get two points at the line, then many players will probably decide that the best way to stay off his posters is to clear a path. But until he improves, it's up to the league to increase the disincentives associated with this ever-increasing tactic.

Metta World Peace Suspension: Lakers Pay For Selfish Actions

2012-04-26T17:34:00Z

Metta World Peace is in a world of trouble, and now isn't the time to thank his psychiatrist or even Queensbridge. Given his prior history, you never know what to expect from a man who is a bit wacko, up and down, and constantly losing his mind.

Remember when he got an 86-game suspension in 2004 -- the longest ban for an on-court-related incident in NBA history -- for jumping into the stands to attack fans when a boorish fan had thrown beer on him while lying on the scorer's table at the Palace of Auburn Hills in Detroit, known as the Malice at the Palace? Remember when he was arrested and charged for domestic violence that resulted in a lengthy suspension with the Sacramento Kings? Remember when he aggressively slammed J.J. Barea last season? Remember when he used to verbally exchange words with opposing players, the get-in-your-face kind of nonsense?

But now, he's supposed to be an inspirational veteran, a role model serving as a charity worker, when instead he's still a psycho and could snap at anytime. This latest episode has worried the Lakers, and time and time again, he's been involved in an altercation, enough to make Phil Jackson and even his successor, Mike Brown literally shake their heads in disgrace. The mind is a funny thing, but one would like to figure out the variations of World Peace's mind. If you truly believed the psychotic days were over, perhaps you may want to second guess.

Now, again, he's the Ron Artest of old. His latest incident was ugly, vicious and unnecessary. It comes as no surprise that he's been punished harshly for his actions -- whether he knows the difference from right or wrong. The punishment perhaps -- whether he likes it or not -- was issued to send a message, a strong message to World Peace, knowing his prior history of on-court troubles. He wasn't on his best behavior, and now he's paying the price. If you do the crime, you must do the time.

At some point in the near future, he'll realize that the NBA responded to his latest actions with a seven-game suspension for player safety, and more importantly, send a message to World Peace, who had a lapse in self-control and keeping his composure, letting his emotions get the best of him that could doom the Los Angeles Lakers. One can often wonder whether it has suffocated the Lakers' postseason. The timing couldn't be worse, of course, for the suspension. It won't only hurt his wallet, but may punish the team as a whole. And it's unfortunate the Lakers have to pay consequences for the wrongdoings of someone else's foolishness.

His stupidity and poor judgment was solely a way to lose every ounce of credibility and dignity, when he acted selfishly and violently, knowing he was a key component. It's hard to forget about his troubling past, when he continues to wrongfully provoke trouble with his inability to conduct himself as a decorous player and not a nutcase. The vicious elbow to the head of James Harden, who later suffered a concussion during the Lakers’ double-overtime win Sunday, was unacceptable and aggressive enough to result in a lengthy suspension.

PEACE OUT!

"The concussion suffered by James Harden demonstrates the danger posed by violent acts of this kind, particularly when they are directed at the head area," NBA commissioner David Stern said in a statement. "We remain committed to taking necessary measures to protect the safety of NBA players, including the imposition of appropriate penalties for players with a history of on-court altercations."

Yes, indeed, he has had a history of on-court troubles. And even after changing his name to World Peace, earning the Walter Kennedy Citizenship Award last season mainly for donating his salary to mental health charity foundations, he's not at peace, he's at war. Once again, he's not thinking. He's acting foolishly. He's acting like an angry kid at recess. He's throwing childish tantrums by landing the elbow on another player’s head. It's too late after the effect, and he realizes that now, as World Peace will miss the regular-season finale on Thursday in Sacramento and six playoff games.

It's unfortunate for the Lakers, but not for World Peace, who again, is punished and rightfully so. This time, after helping the Lakers win it all in 2010, he won't be available. The league wasn't buying into his vicious elbow being unintentional, as he and his teammates only believe the incident was inadvertent. He's a competitor and perhaps the Lakers will miss his competitiveness. This blow inevitably could let his teammates down. Didn't think about that, huh, Ron Ron?

The absence of World Peace raises much concern, inserting doubt into our minds and leaving the Lakers in limbo, although the team may have enough with the greatest finisher in the game in Kobe Bryant, with the emergence of Jordan Hill and with Ramon Sessions at the point. It seemed he was a feel-good story, a tale of inspiration, but he angrily erupted. It seemed he was a changed man, especially when he changed his name to peace. It seemed he was giving back to charities and funding humanitarian trips overseas, but all of this is washed away by his dirtiness and on-court troubles. Long ago, his convenient excuse used to be that he grew up in the projects in Queens and had been traumatized by seeing abuse as a kid.

But as the playoffs are nearing, he gets suspended. And at least he had sense enough to apologize, but forgiveness is not good enough. Punishment is, and because of his selfish, juvenile, senseless actions, Metta Wacko Peace has to pay.